新能源及有色金属日报：现货升水维持高涨，沪镍窄幅震荡-20250625

Group 1: Nickel Variety Market Analysis - On June 24, 2025, the main contract of Shanghai nickel 2507 opened at 117,440 yuan/ton and closed at 117,450 yuan/ton, a change of -0.44% from the previous trading day. The trading volume was 96,087 lots, and the open interest was 52,007 lots [1]. - The main contract of Shanghai nickel fell slightly at the night - session opening and then oscillated sideways. During the day - session, it rebounded slightly but was blocked and then oscillated downwards, with a small rebound in the afternoon, closing with a doji. The trading volume and open interest decreased slightly compared to the previous trading day. The spot market saw a weak oscillation of nickel prices, and refined nickel traders raised the spot premium, but downstream acceptance was limited, resulting in a light overall spot trading volume. The premium of Jinchuan nickel changed by 250 yuan/ton to 3,000 yuan/ton, the premium of imported nickel remained unchanged at 500 yuan/ton, and the premium of nickel beans was - 450 yuan/ton. The previous trading day's Shanghai nickel warehouse receipts were 21,581 (103.0) tons, and the LME nickel inventory was 203,928 (-216) tons [2]. Strategy - The tight supply problem of Indonesian nickel ore has been alleviated due to the production cut of smelters, and the cost support has weakened. The oversupply pattern of refined nickel remains unchanged. It is expected to decline weakly in the near term, and the idea of selling hedging on rallies is still maintained in the long - term. For single - side trading, it is mainly range - bound operation; there are no strategies for inter - period, cross - variety, spot - futures, and options trading [3]. Group 2: Stainless Steel Variety Market Analysis - On June 24, 2025, the main contract of stainless steel 2508 opened at 12,475 yuan/ton and closed at 12,440 yuan/ton. The trading volume was 209,087 lots, and the open interest was 185,907 lots [3]. - The main contract of stainless steel fell slightly at the night - session opening and then oscillated sideways. During the day - session, it fell to a new low and then rebounded slightly. In the afternoon, it rebounded sharply due to the news of Tsingshan's production cut, closing with a positive line. The trading volume increased compared to the previous trading day, and the open interest changed little. The nickel - iron transaction reached a new low of 910 yuan/nickel (including tax at the bottom of the hold) for over ten thousand tons, with a delivery period in July. The spot market saw a bottom - rebound of stainless steel prices. In the morning, steel mills lowered their price limits, and traders lowered their spot prices. In the afternoon, the news of steel mills' production cuts drove the price rebound, and merchants' quotes remained stable, with an active inquiry volume and a slightly improved market trading volume. The stainless steel price in Wuxi and Foshan markets was 12,575 yuan/ton, and the premium of 304/2B was 280 to 530 yuan/ton. The average ex - factory price of high - nickel pig iron decreased by 5.00 yuan/nickel point to 915.0 yuan/nickel point [4][5]. Strategy - Although steel mills have cut production and raw material prices have fallen, with overall weak demand and inventory accumulation, it is expected that stainless steel will oscillate and decline in the near term, and the idea of selling hedging on rallies is still maintained in the long - term. For single - side trading, it is neutral; there are no strategies for inter - period, cross - variety, spot - futures, and options trading [5].