Report Industry Investment Rating No relevant content provided. Core View of the Report - Overseas, Fed Chair Powell reiterated that the Fed can wait to cut interest rates, and the cease - fire between Israel and Iran reduced global risk aversion. The US dollar index weakened in the short - term, and global risk appetite increased. Domestically, China's consumption growth was strong in May, but investment and industrial production slowed down. The overall economic growth was stable, which helped boost domestic risk appetite. The easing of geopolitical tensions in the Middle East and the dovish policy statements of Fed officials supported domestic risk appetite. For assets, the stock index may rebound in the short - term, and short - term cautious long positions are recommended; treasury bonds may fluctuate at a high level, and cautious waiting is advised; for the commodity sector, black metals may fluctuate at a low level, and cautious waiting is recommended; non - ferrous metals may fluctuate strongly, and short - term cautious long positions are recommended; energy and chemicals may have intensified fluctuations, and cautious waiting is recommended; precious metals may fluctuate at a high level, and cautious waiting is advised [2]. Summary by Relevant Catalogs Macro Finance - Overseas, Powell's statement and the Israel - Iran cease - fire led to a weaker US dollar index and increased global risk appetite. Domestically, China's economic situation and external factors supported domestic risk appetite. For assets, different investment suggestions were given for stock indices, treasury bonds, and various commodity sectors [2]. Stock Index - Driven by sectors such as batteries, humanoid robots, and automobiles, the domestic stock market continued to rise. China's economic situation, the easing of Middle East geopolitical tensions, and Fed officials' dovish statements supported domestic risk appetite. The market's trading logic focused on multiple factors, and short - term cautious long positions were recommended [3]. Precious Metals - The Israel - Iran cease - fire reduced the safe - haven demand for precious metals, causing prices to decline. The Fed's stance and economic data influenced the market. With the easing of the Middle East conflict, precious metals were under short - term pressure [3][4]. Black Metals Steel - On Tuesday, steel prices slightly declined, and trading volume was low. The easing of the Middle East situation and falling oil prices affected the market. Although demand was not significantly worse and inventory was decreasing, supply increased, and the market was expected to bottom - out and fluctuate in the short - term [6]. Iron Ore - On Tuesday, iron ore prices declined. Iron ore supply was expected to remain high in the second - quarter peak season, and short - term prices were expected to fluctuate within a range, with a possible mid - term decline [6]. Silicon Manganese/Silicon Iron - On Tuesday, the prices of silicon iron and silicon manganese were stable. The demand for ferroalloys was okay in the short - term. With production changes in different regions, the overall alloy output had little change. The market was expected to fluctuate within a range, and prices might decline if oil prices weakened [7][8]. Soda Ash - On Tuesday, soda ash prices were weakly fluctuating. Supply was increasing but at a slower pace, demand was mainly for rigid needs, and inventory was increasing. Prices were expected to be under pressure and fluctuate within a range in the short - term [8]. Glass - On Tuesday, glass prices were strongly fluctuating. Supply and demand were both weak, and the market was expected to fluctuate within a range in the short - term [9]. Non - Ferrous and New Energy Copper - Fed officials' stance changes affected the market. Copper production was high, demand had a marginal weakening risk, and inventory growth had slowed. The high price difference between COMEX and LME affected imports. Future market trends depended on US negotiations and tariff policies [10]. Aluminum - The easing of the Middle East geopolitical situation led to a decline in aluminum prices. Inventory accumulation indicated a possible turning point, and demand had a marginal weakening risk [11]. Aluminum Alloy - Entering the off - season, demand was weak, but tight scrap aluminum supply supported prices. Prices were expected to fluctuate strongly in the short - term with limited upside [11]. Tin - Supply was tight, and the start - up rate decreased slightly. Demand was in the off - season, and orders declined. Prices were expected to fluctuate strongly in the short - term with limited upside due to various factors [12]. Lithium Carbonate - The weighted contract of lithium carbonate rebounded, but supply increased while demand weakened, and inventory was high. Short - term waiting and mid - term short - positions were recommended [12]. Industrial Silicon - The market was in a sideways trend. Supply and demand were both weak, and prices were slightly affected by coal prices. Short - term waiting and mid - term short - positions were recommended [13]. Polysilicon - The market was weak. Supply was at a low level, and demand pressure was increasing. If the photovoltaic industry increased production cuts in the third quarter, the supply - demand contradiction would intensify [13]. Energy and Chemicals Crude Oil - Trump's statements and the cease - fire agreement made the market focus on potential supply surpluses, and oil prices were expected to remain weakly fluctuating [14]. Asphalt - Oil price declines led to lower asphalt prices. Although inventory removal was slow, demand was approaching the peak season. It was expected to follow crude oil and fluctuate at a high level in the short - term [14]. PX - Crude oil price drops led to PX price declines, but the downward space was limited. Tight supply was expected to continue, and it would follow crude oil and fluctuate weakly in the short - term [15]. PTA - The PTA basis remained stable, but crude oil price changes might lead to downstream contradictions. With high polyester开工, inventory pressure was increasing, and prices might face upward pressure later [15]. Ethylene Glycol - Crude oil price drops and reduced supply risks affected ethylene glycol. Inventory removal slowed down, and prices were expected to be suppressed in the short - term [15]. Short - Fiber - Crude oil price drops led to short - fiber price declines. It followed the polyester sector and was expected to fluctuate strongly. With high inventory, it would wait for the peak - season demand [16]. Methanol - The methanol market declined, but supply shortages and profit repairs limited the downward space. It was expected to fluctuate strongly within a range in the short - term [17]. PP - PP prices declined. With increasing production and weakening demand, prices were expected to fall, and the development of the Israel - Iran conflict should be monitored [17]. LLDPE - Polyethylene prices adjusted. With stable production and demand, and the easing of geopolitical conflicts, the market was expected to weaken and fluctuate strongly in the short - term [17]. Agricultural Products US Soybeans - CBOT soybeans declined due to the influence of soybean oil and crude oil. Favorable weather in the US Midwest was expected [18]. Soybean and Rapeseed Meal - The high - opening rate of oil mills led to a gradually looser supply - demand situation for soybean meal. The market sentiment was weakly fluctuating, and the domestic basis was expected to remain unchanged [18]. Palm Oil - No detailed content provided for palm oil analysis. Live Hogs - The expected low pig prices until August - September might lead to continuous selling pressure for the LH09 contract [20].
东海期货研究所晨会观点精萃-20250625
Dong Hai Qi Huo·2025-06-25 05:50