破局低利率系列4：美国低利率时代，有哪些投资机遇？（下）

Economic Performance - The impact of the three crises on the U.S. economy varies, with the internet bubble and COVID-19 causing "pulse-like" effects, while the financial crisis represents a "great recession" with prolonged recovery[17] - During the internet bubble, U.S. GDP growth rate fell from 2.9% in Q4 2000 to 0.2% in Q4 2001, indicating a minor impact, while COVID-19 saw a sharp drop to -7.5% in Q2 2020[17] - The financial crisis led to a decline in GDP growth from 2.4% in Q3 2007 to -4% in Q2 2009, with a negative economic activity index for 19 consecutive months[17] Monetary Response - The Federal Reserve's response evolved from conventional to unconventional measures, with interest rates dropping to 1% post-internet bubble and near zero during the COVID-19 crisis[8] - The Fed's balance sheet as a percentage of GDP rose from 6.2% in 2007 to 25.5% in 2014 due to quantitative easing, further increasing to 37% by 2021[26] - Unlike Japan's continuous easing, U.S. monetary policy exhibited cyclical tightening and loosening, reflecting economic resilience[24] Fiscal Response - The federal deficit rose to 5.1% in 2003, with government leverage increasing from 70% to 77% between 2001 and 2004[9] - During the financial crisis, the deficit peaked at 11% in 2009, with leverage rising to 120% by 2016[9] - In 2020, the U.S. government incurred a deficit of $3 trillion, resulting in a deficit rate of 14% and a leverage ratio of 141%, both historical highs since the Great Depression[9] Asset Performance - U.S. asset performance during crises showed alternating strengths between real estate and equities, with real estate thriving post-internet bubble and equities rebounding after the financial crisis[11] - The real estate market saw a 28% decline from peak to trough during the financial crisis, recovering within five years, while Japan's market took 18 years to recover from a 45% decline[38] - The U.S. stock market, represented by the S&P 500, experienced significant growth during the COVID-19 period, reflecting the effectiveness of monetary and fiscal policies[36]