新能源观点：供应端再现扰动传闻，新能源金属价格弱反弹-20250625

Report Summary 1. Industry Investment Rating - All three key new energy metals (industrial silicon, polysilicon, and lithium carbonate) are rated as "oscillating" [4][5][7] 2. Core Viewpoints - The supply side of new energy metals has seen rumors of disruptions, leading to a weak rebound in prices. In the short - to - medium term, prices are trending weakly, but as they fall to important cost areas, a weak rebound occurs. For the long - term, low prices may accelerate the production capacity clearance of domestically self - priced varieties [1] 3. Summary by Related Catalogs I. Market Views - Industrial Silicon - Current Situation: As of June 24, the price decline of industrial silicon has slowed. The domestic inventory has increased, with production in May up 2.3% month - on - month but down 24.6% year - on - year. Exports in May decreased by 8.0% month - on - month and 22.5% year - on - year. The new photovoltaic installed capacity in May increased significantly [4] - Logic: On the supply side, northern large - scale plants are resuming production, and southwestern regions are entering the wet season with new capacity. On the demand side, downstream demand is still weak, especially from polysilicon enterprises [4] - Outlook: Supply continues to rise while demand remains weak, so the silicon price will be under pressure and show an oscillating trend [4] - Polysilicon - Current Situation: The average transaction price of N - type re - feedstock has decreased by 6.27% month - on - month. The number of warehouse receipts remains unchanged. Exports in May increased month - on - month but decreased year - on - year, and imports decreased [4][5] - Logic: After the end of the photovoltaic installation rush, silicon wafer production scheduling has weakened in the short term, and the spot price has declined, causing the futures price to fall. Supply is currently at a low level, and demand may weaken in the future [5] - Outlook: The short - term supply - demand situation is improving, but there is a risk of weakening demand in the second half of the year, so the price will show a wide - range oscillation [5] - Lithium Carbonate - Current Situation: On June 24, the closing price of the main contract increased by 2.67%, and the total position decreased. The spot price and the average price of lithium spodumene concentrate decreased, and the warehouse receipts decreased [6] - Logic: The market supply - demand lacks a driving force. Supply is increasing, demand is weak, and social inventory is accumulating while warehouse receipts are decreasing. The ore price is testing the cost support [7] - Outlook: Demand is flat, supply is high but inventory is decreasing, so the price will oscillate in the short term [7] II. Market Monitoring - The report mentions market monitoring for industrial silicon, polysilicon, and lithium carbonate, but no specific content is provided [8][14][25]