Report Industry Investment Rating The report does not explicitly mention the industry investment rating. Core Views - The stock market should be treated as a volatile market, while the profit - taking sentiment in the bond market is rising. Specifically, the stock index futures are in a volatile market, the sentiment in the stock index options is expected to continue to warm up, and the profit - taking sentiment in the bond index futures continues to heat up [1][2]. Summary by Directory 1. Market Views Stock Index Futures - View: Treat it as a volatile market. The current major indices are approaching the upper resistance levels. Although the A - share market rose on the previous day due to the easing of geopolitical tensions, this rise is a one - time pricing of the exhaustion of negative news and cannot be a reference for the sustainability of the subsequent market. Catalysts are needed for an upward breakthrough, and currently, it is still far from the time for concentrated speculation, so it should be treated as a volatile market, with low - level buying and high - level selling [1][7]. - Operation Suggestion: Wait and see [7]. Stock Index Options - View: The sentiment is expected to continue to warm up. The trading volume in the options market increased by 29.90% compared with the previous trading day, showing active trading. The PCR of open interest continued to rise, and there is still room for improvement in sentiment. The skewness of major varieties decreased, indicating a shift from defense to offense in the market. The volatility rebounded but remained at a low level. It is recommended to continue with the collar or bull spread strategies and a light - position double - buying strategy for volatility [2][7]. - Suggestion: Collar, bull spread, and light - position double - buying [7]. Bond Index Futures - View: The profit - taking sentiment continues to heat up. The bond index futures closed down across the board on the previous day. The strong performance of the equity market and the potential disturbances in the capital market due to the approaching end of the quarter and increased supply may have put pressure on the bond market. The DR007 rose significantly to 1.67%. The bond market may remain in a volatile pattern, and the profit - taking sentiment has increased [2][9][10]. - Operation Suggestion: For the trend strategy, it is a volatile market. For the hedging strategy, pay attention to short - selling hedging at low basis levels. For the basis strategy, appropriately pay attention to the widening of the basis. For the curve strategy, steepening the curve in the medium term has a higher probability of success [10]. 2. Economic Calendar The report provides an economic calendar for the current week, including data such as the manufacturing PMI preliminary values in the Eurozone and the United States, the IFO business climate index in Germany, and consumer confidence indices in the United States. Some data has been released, while others are yet to be announced [11]. 3. Important Information and News Tracking - US Macro: On June 24, Fed Chairman Powell submitted semi - annual monetary policy report testimony to Congress, reiterating that the Fed is not in a hurry to cut interest rates and is waiting for the impact of tariffs to become clear. He believes that the impact of tariffs on inflation may be short - term or long - term [12]. - China Macro: Six departments including the People's Bank of China jointly issued the "Guiding Opinions on Financial Support for Boosting and Expanding Consumption", proposing to set up a re - loan for service consumption and elderly care with a quota of 500 billion yuan [12]. 4. Derivatives Market Monitoring The report mentions the monitoring of the stock index futures, stock index options, and bond index futures markets, but specific data details are not fully presented in the provided content.
股市仍以震荡市对待,债市?盈升温
Zhong Xin Qi Huo·2025-06-25 06:50