2025年中期大类资产配置展望：股蓄势、债寻机，黄金决胜配置

• The report introduces a "short-term timing model" for A-shares, which has shown excellent performance over the past year, achieving an annualized return of 23.60%, a Sharpe ratio of 1.1511, and a maximum drawdown of 11.04%[24][23][6] - The "corrected momentum industry rotation strategy" (PMS combination) is highlighted, which selects industries based on momentum indicators and achieves a cumulative return of 6.84% year-to-date, with an excess return of 7.59% over the CSI 800 Total Return Index and a maximum drawdown of -11.78%[26][27][30] - The "ROIC-based interest rate model" is used to estimate the mid-point of interest rates for 2025, with results showing 1.34% for A-share listed companies and 1.50% for industrial enterprises, with upper bounds of 1.75% and 1.91%, respectively[31][32][40] - A "multi-cycle interest rate timing strategy" is applied to bond markets, leveraging price-volume data to identify trends. The strategy achieved an annualized return of 7.79% (pre-fee) and 6.67% (post-fee) over the past six months, outperforming the equal-weight benchmark[43][47][45] - The "convertible bond pricing deviation model" evaluates the valuation of convertible bonds using a binary tree pricing method. The current market pricing deviation median is -0.69%, indicating relatively fair pricing[51][52][54] - A "fixed-income multi-asset allocation strategy" is constructed, combining pure bonds and convertible bonds. The strategy achieved a long-term annualized return of 5.60% with a maximum drawdown of 2.21%, outperforming the ChinaBond Composite Bond Index[57][65][68] - The report emphasizes the role of gold in multi-asset strategies, noting that gold contributed significantly to the 4% year-to-date return of China's all-weather strategy, outperforming similar-risk secondary bond funds with a return of only 1.4%[80][69][85]