南华贵金属日报：地缘风险缓和，PK降息预期回暖-20250625

Report Industry Investment Rating - Not provided in the content Core View of the Report - The medium - to long - term outlook for precious metals is bullish. In the short term, with geopolitical risks easing and trade tariff negotiations not in a sensitive period, the market is expected to remain volatile at high levels. Short - term corrections are seen as medium - to long - term buying opportunities. The key support for London gold is at $3300, and for London silver is in the $34.8 - 35 range [6] Summary by Relevant Catalogs Market Review - On Tuesday, the precious metals market continued to adjust. COMEX gold 2508 contract closed at $3338.5 per ounce, down 1.66%; COMEX silver 2507 contract closed at $35.88 per ounce, up 0.41%. SHFE gold 2508 contract closed at 771.86 yuan per gram, down 1.26%; SHFE silver 2508 contract closed at 8739 yuan per kilogram, up 0.09%. During the conflict period, London gold rose from $3300 to $3450 and then retraced to around $3300. The warming expectation of the Fed's interest rate cut this year limited the decline of precious metals [2] Interest Rate Cut Expectations and Fund Holdings - According to CME's "FedWatch" data, the probability of the Fed keeping interest rates unchanged in July is 81.4%, and the probability of a 25 - basis - point cut is 18.6%. In September, the probability of keeping rates unchanged is 14.8%, the probability of a cumulative 25 - basis - point cut is 70%, and the probability of a cumulative 50 - basis - point cut is 15.4%. In October, the probability of keeping rates unchanged is 5.3%, the probability of a cumulative 25 - basis - point cut is 34.6%, the probability of a cumulative 50 - basis - point cut is 50.4%, and the probability of a cumulative 75 - basis - point cut is 9.8%. SPDR Gold ETF holdings increased by 1.7 tons to 955.7 tons, while iShares Silver ETF holdings decreased by 73.5 tons to 14877.5 tons. SHFE silver inventory increased by 16.9 tons to 1247.1 tons, and SGX silver inventory decreased by 21 tons to 1357.8 tons as of the week ending June 20 [3] This Week's Focus - This week, the focus is on the US PCE data on Friday night. In terms of events, attention should be paid to changes in the Middle East geopolitical situation, progress in trade tariff negotiations, and changes in the Fed's interest rate cut expectations. On Wednesday at 22:00, Fed Chairman Powell will give testimony on the semi - annual monetary policy report to the Senate Committee. On Friday at 02:30, ECB President Lagarde will speak, and at 19:30, FOMC permanent voter and New York Fed President Williams will chair a meeting at the 24th BIS Annual Meeting [4][5] Price and Inventory Data - Precious Metals Futures and Spot Prices: Data on the latest prices, daily changes, and daily change rates of SHFE and CME gold and silver futures, as well as SHFE - TD spreads and CME gold - silver ratio are provided [7] - Inventory and Holdings: Data on the latest values, daily changes, and daily change rates of SHFE, CME, and SGX gold and silver inventories, as well as SHFE gold and silver holdings, SPDR gold holdings, and SLV silver holdings are presented [17] - Stock, Bond, and Commodity Overview: Data on the latest values, daily changes, and daily change rates of the US dollar index, US dollar against the Chinese yuan, Dow Jones Industrial Average, WTI crude oil, LmeS copper, 10 - year US Treasury yield, 10 - year US real interest rate, and 10 - 2 - year US Treasury yield spread are provided [23]