逆全球化思潮抬头我国应对思考：提升居民消费与大力发展服务业

Economic Indicators - China's industrial capacity utilization rate was only 74.1% as of Q1 2025, below the 15-year average of 77.0% from 2006 to 2022[3] - China's goods export share increased from 12.76% in 2017 to 14.64% in 2024, while the U.S. share decreased from 8.72% to 8.45% during the same period[4] - China's trade surplus grew from $419.6 billion in 2017 to $991.4 billion in 2024, more than doubling[4] Consumer Spending - In 2023, China's resident consumption accounted for only 40% of GDP, compared to 68% in the U.S., 53% in the EU, and 54% in Japan, indicating significant room for growth[7] - If China's resident consumption share increases by 15-20%, it could generate an additional consumption of 20-27 trillion RMB, comparable to the total export value of $3.6 trillion in 2024[8] Service Sector Development - In 2024, China's service consumption was estimated at 33.6 trillion RMB, while the U.S. service consumption was approximately 99 trillion RMB, indicating a potential for substantial growth in China's service sector[9] - The report emphasizes that enhancing the service industry is crucial for boosting resident consumption and overall economic growth[9] Trade Uncertainties - The rise of anti-globalization sentiments and protectionism poses uncertainties for China's foreign trade, particularly with investigations like the EU's anti-subsidy probe into Chinese electric vehicles[5] - The report forecasts that China's foreign trade growth may face challenges in 2025 due to these external pressures[5]