股吧散户评论是股市的晴雨表吗？

Core Insights - The report investigates whether retail investor comments on stock forums serve as a barometer for market sentiment, particularly focusing on the Shanghai Composite Index [1][10] - It employs sentiment analysis techniques, including BERT model and sentiment lexicon methods, to analyze the emotional tone of investor comments and their potential correlation with market trends [1][11] Group 1: Investor Sentiment Analysis - Comments are categorized into "bullish," "bearish," and "neutral," with bearish comments generally outnumbering bullish ones, indicating that retail investors tend to express negative sentiments during poor market conditions [2][58] - The analysis reveals a logical relationship between sentiment indicators derived from comments and the Shanghai Composite Index during years of significant market fluctuations, although this relationship lacks consistent stability across different years [2][3] Group 2: Methodology and Data Processing - The report utilizes natural language processing (NLP) techniques to analyze investor comments, highlighting the importance of sentiment analysis in understanding market dynamics [10][11] - Data is sourced from the Eastmoney website's Shanghai Composite Index forum, with a focus on comments that reflect genuine retail investor sentiment, filtered to retain approximately 5 million relevant comments over nearly a decade [34][37] Group 3: BERT Model Application - The BERT model is employed to classify the sentiment of comments, achieving an overall accuracy of 88% across different sentiment categories, with specific precision and recall metrics for each category [54][53] - The sentiment scores derived from the BERT model indicate that retail investor sentiment often reacts to current market prices rather than predicting future trends, suggesting a reactive rather than proactive investment behavior [3][67] Group 4: Sentiment Lexicon Analysis - The sentiment lexicon method complements the BERT analysis by quantifying emotional tendencies based on predefined financial sentiment words, further confirming the predominance of bearish sentiment among retail investors [69][75] - The report emphasizes that sentiment indicators derived from both methods reflect a similar trend, with bearish comments consistently outnumbering bullish ones, particularly during market downturns [79][78]