大争势起：迎接更加不确定的下半场

Industry Investment Rating - The rating for the US dollar is "Bearish" [7] Core Views - In the second half of 2025, the stagflation pressure in the US will rise significantly, and the Fed will release liquidity to balance the economy, leading to a weaker US dollar with an expected weakening center around 95 [5][95] - The market volatility in the second half of the year will be significantly higher than that in the first half, so holding safe - haven assets is recommended [5][96] Summary by Directory 1. United States: Severe Economic Pressure and Worsening Treasury Bond Issues 1.1 Labor Market: Structural Resilience Persists, but Medium - term Weakness is Inevitable - In H1 2025, the US labor market's resilience exceeded expectations, with a high - level new employment center, slowing wage growth, and a low unemployment rate [17] - The labor market shows insensitivity to the economic cycle, and in the future, it may enter an "atypical recession" with a linear decline in employment and a possible sudden acceleration of weakness [19] - The Phillips curve may flatten in H2 due to inflation, and the labor market may resist inflation, increasing fluctuations [21][23] 1.2 The Prospect of US Economic Stagflation is Becoming More Apparent - The current decline in US inflation data is a reflection of past economic fundamentals. The potential pressure of reciprocal tariffs will push up inflation expectations, and the long - term inflation pressure will be significant [26] - The US economy's downward pressure is increasing, with the deterioration of the household sector's cash - flow and the long - standing problem of credit tightening [28][30] - The pressure of stagflation is shifting from expectation to reality. The end of the inventory - replenishment phase in the corporate sector and the intensification of reciprocal tariffs will exacerbate stagflation [36][37] 1.3 US Dollar: A Clearly Weakening Currency in H2 - In H1 2025, the market accepted the weak - dollar cycle as the high - growth of the US economy, the basis of the strong - dollar cycle, no longer exists [40] - The US Treasury bond issue will become more prominent in H2. The solution to the deficit problem requires liquidity injection, which will lead to a weaker US dollar [44][46] 2. Eurozone and Japan 2.1 Eurozone: Marginal Improvement in Economic Fundamentals - In 2025, the Eurozone's real GDP growth rebounded, inflation continued to decline, and the manufacturing industry recovered faster than the service industry, driving up the debt levels of residents and enterprises [48][57] - The EU's "Re - arming Europe Plan" with 800 billion euros in spending has changed the economic structure of the Eurozone, increasing manufacturing capacity [57] - The ECB will continue to cut interest rates, and fiscal policy will also be strengthened. The euro's appreciation trend will be enhanced [66] 2.2 Japan: Persistent Appreciation Trend - Japan's economic fundamentals have improved, with consumption driving GDP growth. However, there is a divergence between strong consumption and relatively weak industrial production [69][75] - From a fundamental perspective, the yen has a basis for appreciation, but a strong yen will bring challenges to foreign trade and liquidity. The Bank of Japan needs to make a choice on interest - rate policy [85][86] - Considering the US - Japan trade negotiation and market expectations, the yen is likely to appreciate, but the speed of appreciation needs to be controlled [86] 3. Global Macro: Embracing a More Uncertain Second Half - Trump's policies in 2025 have broken the strong - dollar cycle, and the de - globalization narrative has emerged, with the US Treasury bond issue coming to the fore [87] - The extreme and inconsistent policies are due to populism, which exposes the fragility of the US economy and leads to stagflation [87] - Geopolitical risks will rise in H2, which will have a short - term positive impact on the US dollar but a long - term negative impact. The US dollar will continue to weaken [91][92] 4. Investment Recommendations 4.1 The Weak - dollar Trend is Obvious - In H2 2025, the US stagflation pressure will rise, and the Fed will release liquidity, leading to a weaker US dollar with a center around 95 [5][95] 4.2 Continued Recommendation of Safe - haven Assets - In H2, market contradictions and conflicts will accelerate, increasing volatility. Holding safe - haven assets is recommended [5][96]