INTCO RECYCLING(SH:688087) NORTHEAST SECURITIES·2025-06-25 07:35Investment Rating - The report initiates coverage with a "Buy" rating for the company [4]. Core Views - The company has announced a restricted stock incentive plan for 2025, granting 7.378 million shares at a price of 12.01 CNY per share, which represents 3.94% of the total share capital at the time of the announcement. The performance targets for 2025-2029 include revenue of no less than 33.63 billion CNY in 2025, increasing to 58.81 billion CNY by 2029, and net profit of no less than 3.53 billion CNY in 2025, reaching 6.17 billion CNY by 2029 [1][2]. - The company expects a compound annual growth rate (CAGR) of 15% for both revenue and net profit from 2026 to 2029, indicating strong confidence in future growth [2]. - The company has shown significant growth in Q1, achieving a 25% increase in revenue despite it being a traditional off-season for foreign trade, driven by new products and strong performance in non-US markets [2]. - The company is the only player in the industry that has innovatively integrated the entire plastic recycling and reuse value chain, establishing strong competitive barriers through advanced technology and a unique business model [2]. Financial Summary - The company forecasts revenues of 2,924 million CNY for 2024, 3,374 million CNY for 2025, and 4,532 million CNY for 2027, reflecting growth rates of 19.09%, 15.42%, and 16.06% respectively [3][11]. - The projected net profit for 2025 is 330 million CNY, with a growth rate of 7.5% compared to 2024, and expected to reach 448 million CNY by 2027, with a CAGR of 19.79% [3][11]. - The earnings per share (EPS) are projected to be 1.76 CNY in 2025 and 2.39 CNY in 2027, with corresponding price-to-earnings (P/E) ratios of 12.26x and 10.24x [3][11].