2025年中期国内宏观经济展望：清风徐来

Economic Growth - In the first quarter of 2025, China's GDP grew by 5.4% year-on-year, with an expected growth rate of approximately 5.3% for the first half of the year[2] - The GDP growth rate is projected to be around 4.7% in Q3 and 4.9% in Q4, leading to an annual growth rate of 5%-5.1%[2] Policy Outlook - Fiscal policy is expected to continue its expansion, with a focus on optimizing expenditures and increasing central government leverage[2] - Monetary policy is likely to remain accommodative, targeting specific sectors to stimulate growth[2] Industrial Production - Industrial added value is anticipated to grow by about 6% for the year, supported by improved production environments and new investment projects[2] - High-tech manufacturing is expected to lead growth, with a projected increase in added value of 7.5%-8.5% in the second half of 2025[2] Fixed Asset Investment - Fixed asset investment is projected to grow by 4.5% for the year, with manufacturing investment expected to increase by 8.5%[2] - Infrastructure investment (excluding electricity) is forecasted to grow by around 7% due to accelerated project funding and implementation[2] Consumer Spending - Retail sales are expected to grow by 5.5% for the year, driven by policies such as "trade-in" incentives, with an estimated subsidy scale of 300 billion yuan[2] - Consumer spending may experience fluctuations due to external economic uncertainties and income growth challenges[2] Trade and Exports - Export growth is projected to decline by 0.5% for the year, influenced by global economic slowdowns and trade protectionism[2] - Import growth is expected to contract by 3% for the year, reflecting ongoing pressures in the domestic market[2] Inflation and Prices - CPI is expected to remain around 0.1% for the year, while PPI is projected to decline by approximately 2%[2] - The inflation outlook indicates a gradual increase in consumer prices, but significant upward pressure is limited[2] Corporate Profits - Industrial enterprise profits are expected to see a low recovery, with an annual growth rate projected to exceed 3%[2] - Profit growth is primarily constrained by PPI declines and external demand pressures[2]