定价重心重回纯苯

1. Report Industry Investment Rating - The rating for styrene is "Oscillating" [1] 2. Core Viewpoints of the Report - Pure benzene valuation has shifted from continuous decline to an oscillating phase, and attention should be paid to whether the demand side can create an expected difference. Styrene's supply - demand structure is expected to weaken marginally in stages, with the variable being ethane supply. In the second half of the year, pure benzene's supply - demand is generally balanced, with BZN likely to first rebound and then bottom out again. Styrene's non - integrated profit margin may weaken quarter - on - quarter, and the idea of trading spreads should change from widening at low levels to range - bound operations [1][2][3] 3. Summary According to the Directory 3.1上半年核心交易逻辑在于纯苯估值压缩 - In the first half of 2025, styrene prices fluctuated. In the first quarter, driven by positive expectations, prices initially rose, but then supply increased and pure benzene demand was over - drawn, causing prices to decline. In the second quarter, styrene's supply - demand was not bad, but pure benzene's valuation continued to decline, and styrene's absolute price mainly followed oil price fluctuations [15][16] 3.2统苯估值压降的趋势何时能够反转? 3.2.1上半年纯苯估值承压下行的成因 - In the first half of 2025, pure benzene supply was abundant due to a significant increase in imports. The high import volume was caused by the weakening of the US Gulf pure benzene structure and the weakening of European chemical demand. Although pure benzene demand was not bad overall, the growth rate of non - styrene downstream demand slowed down, leading to poor seasonal de - stocking and making pure benzene a short - position target [22][24][26] 3.2.2因其生产特性问题,估值压降对纯苯供应挤出的力度相对较弱 - Due to the by - product nature of pure benzene production, the impact of valuation changes on supply is relatively weak. Petroleum benzene supply is stable, and marginal reduction mainly depends on disproportionation load reduction. The supply of hydro - benzene is also difficult to squeeze due to the by - product nature of its raw material, crude benzene. There are still new pure benzene production capacities to be released in the second half of the year [30][35][40] 3.2.3纯苯直接下游正在回归、后续将考验终端承接能力 - The weighted output of pure benzene's direct downstream is expected to increase, which will improve the supply - demand structure marginally. However, the sustainability of the improvement depends on the terminal's ability to absorb the products. Different downstream sectors of pure benzene will show differentiation in the second half of the year, with an estimated weighted demand growth rate of around 5.5% [47][49] 3.2.4纯苯下半年供需预期整体较为平衡,BZN或从持续下行转为震荡运行 - In the second half of the year, pure benzene's supply - demand is generally balanced, with an estimated supply growth rate of around 5.8% - 5.9% and a demand growth rate of around 5.5%. The BZN is expected to shift from continuous decline to an oscillating pattern, with a possible bottom - seeking after a short - term rebound. The lower limit of BZN is expected to be around $90 - 120/ton [54][55] 3.3上半年苯乙烯格局优于纯苯,但也推动部分长停装置回归压制远月预期 3.3.1苯乙烯供应面的压力下半年或继续增加 - In the first half of 2025, styrene supply was high in the first quarter and decreased in the second quarter due to maintenance. In the second half of the year, supply pressure is expected to increase as existing production resumes, long - shut - down plants restart, and new capacities are put into operation. The potential variable is the supply of ethane [60][61] 3.3.2上半年苯乙烯下游3S增量亮眼,下半年关注家电端贡献是否会边际转弱 - In the first half of 2025, styrene demand grew by about 13%, mainly driven by the growth of ABS and PS. The reasons include the low base in 2024 and the boost from national subsidies and early export rush. In the second half of the year, the contribution of the home appliance sector may weaken due to the possible adjustment of national subsidies and the pressure on home appliance exports. However, the export of intermediate products such as ABS and PS may offset some of the negative impact [67][70][73] 3.3.3地产端再度回归疲态、静待政策加码 - In the first quarter of 2025, the real estate market showed signs of recovery, but in the second quarter, it weakened again. The decline in the completion end of real estate has dragged down styrene demand. The progress of special bond acquisitions of idle land and the optimization of existing policies should be monitored [82][86][90] 3.3.4总结：下半年苯乙烯绝对价格或更多依赖成本端纯苯指引 - In the second half of the year, styrene's supply pressure will increase, and demand growth may slow down to 5% - 8%. The non - integrated profit margin is expected to weaken, and the absolute price of styrene is likely to be more influenced by pure benzene [94][95] 3.4投资建议 - For pure benzene, consider going long on BZN near the lower limit as the risk - reward ratio may be better. For styrene, change the trading strategy from widening spreads at low levels to range - bound operations, with the EB - BZ spread expected to be in the range of 1200 - 1500 yuan/ton (fluctuating with ethylene and pure benzene prices). Also, pay attention to the resolution of the ethane import issue [3][96][97]