股指早报：中东地缘政治缓和，A股四渡赤水-20250625

Report Investment Rating - The report does not provide an investment rating for the industry. Core Viewpoints - The easing of the Israel - Iran conflict alleviated market concerns, boosting the risk appetite of A - shares on Tuesday. The decline of A - share sectors related to the Israel - Iran conflict indicates that the impact of external events on A - shares has ended, and A - shares will return to their own rhythm and logic. The market should maintain a neutral attitude, with a balanced allocation of blue - chips and technology, and a balanced allocation of Shanghai Stock Exchange 50 and CSI 1000 in stock index futures [4][13]. Summary by Directory 1. Market Views 1.1 Overseas Overnight - US economic data shows a slowdown, with the June Conference Board Consumer Confidence Index at 93, lower than the expected 100 and the previous value of 98.4; the April FIFA House Price Index monthly rate at - 0.4%, lower than the previous value of 0; and the April SPCS20 City Unadjusted House Price Index annual rate at 3.4%, lower than the expected 4% and the previous value of 4.07%. Fed Chairman Powell's attitude is neutral. Overnight, US stocks and bonds rose, the US dollar index, gold, and crude oil fell, the Nasdaq Golden Dragon China Index rose 3.31%, and the offshore RMB exchange rate appreciated [2][6]. 1.2 Domestic Market Review - On Tuesday, the market showed a large - volume upward trend, with the broader market rising 1.15%, the Shenzhen Component Index rising 1.68%, and the ChiNext Index rising 2.3%. The direct cause of the market rise was the easing of the Middle East situation, and the indirect cause was the release of pent - up emotions of internal funds after a long - term consolidation. The sectors related to the Israel - Iran conflict, such as oil and gas and shipping, fell, while solid - state batteries, robots, automobiles, and securities led the gains. The Ministry of Commerce will organize a new - energy vehicle consumption season in thousands of counties and towns in 2025 [3][7]. 1.3 Important Information - Middle East Situation: Trump's views on the Israel - Iran cease - fire agreement, the erasure of oil - price increases since the June 13 Israeli attack on Iran, US intelligence reports on the strike on Iran, the halt of further Israeli military strikes on Iran after the US - Israeli leaders' call, and Iran's readiness for dialogue [8]. - Federal Reserve: Different Fed officials have different views on interest - rate adjustments, with some believing that a wait - and - see approach is appropriate, and some expecting a rate cut later this year [9]. - US Senate: The Republican leader in the US Senate plans to vote on Trump's "Beautiful Big Bill" on Friday [9]. - Central Bank: On June 25, the central bank conducted 300 billion yuan of MLF operations with a term of 1 year, and six departments including the central bank jointly issued a guidance on financial support for boosting and expanding consumption. The central bank will also formulate a new - stage financial technology development plan [10][11]. - Ministry of Commerce: It will organize the 2025 New - Energy Vehicle Consumption Season in Thousands of Counties and Towns [12]. 1.4 Today's Strategy - The market should maintain a neutral attitude, with a balanced allocation of blue - chips and technology, and a balanced allocation of Shanghai Stock Exchange 50 and CSI 1000 in stock index futures. In the short term, focus on the activity of AI and large - finance sectors, and operating according to the 20 - day moving average has a relatively high winning rate [13]. 2. Futures Market Tracking - The report presents multiple charts related to the basis and inter - period spreads of CSI 300, Shanghai Stock Exchange 50, and CSI 500 contracts, including the basis of each contract and the inter - period spreads between different contract months [15][20][22]. 3. Spot Market Tracking - The report shows charts of important index valuations, Shenwan valuations, market average daily trading volume and turnover rate, the number of rising and falling stocks in the two markets, index trading volume changes, stock - bond relative returns, Hong Kong Stock Connect, margin trading balances, and margin trading net purchases and their proportion in A - share trading volume [35][37][39]. 4. Liquidity Tracking - The report includes charts of central bank open - market operations and Shibor interest - rate levels [44].