甲醇、甲醛等涨幅居前，建议关注进口替代、纯内需、高股息等方向

Investment Rating - The report maintains a "Buy" rating for several companies including Xinyangfeng, Senqilin, Ruifeng New Materials, Sinopec, Juhua, Yangnong Chemical, CNOOC, Sailun Tire, Tongkun, and Zhenhua [10]. Core Views - The report highlights significant price increases in methanol (16.20%), formaldehyde (15.74%), and international diesel (15.60%) due to geopolitical tensions, particularly the conflict between Iran and Israel, which has led to rising international oil prices [6][19]. - The report suggests focusing on investment opportunities in import substitution, domestic demand, and high-dividend assets, particularly in the context of the current geopolitical climate and its impact on oil prices [6][8][21]. Summary by Sections Industry Performance - The basic chemical industry has shown a mixed performance with a 1.8% increase over the past month, a 0.9% decrease over three months, and a 13.0% increase over the past year, compared to the Shanghai Composite Index which has seen a 0.6% increase over the past month, a 0.7% decrease over three months, and a 12.9% increase over the past year [2]. Price Movements - Significant price increases were noted in methanol (16.20%), formaldehyde (15.74%), and natural gas (14.23%), while declines were observed in products like pure MDI (-2.01%) and acrylic short fibers (-9.33%) [4][5][19]. - The report indicates that the overall chemical industry remains weak, with varying performance across sub-sectors, influenced by past capacity expansions and weak demand [21]. Investment Recommendations - The report recommends focusing on sectors such as tires, which are expected to perform well due to global positioning and tariff experiences, suggesting companies like Senqilin and Sailun Tire [8][21]. - It also emphasizes the potential for domestic chemical products to replace imports, particularly in lubricants and specialty coatings, and suggests monitoring companies like Ruifeng New Materials and Chenghe Technology [8][21]. - The report highlights the self-sufficiency of nitrogen, phosphorus, and compound fertilizers in China, recommending investments in companies like Hualu Hengsheng and Yuntianhua [8][21]. Oil Price Outlook - The report anticipates that international oil prices will stabilize around $70 per barrel in 2025, influenced by geopolitical risks and supply-demand dynamics [6][19].