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Report Industry Investment Rating - The investment rating for crude oil is "oscillation" [1] Core Viewpoints of the Report - Geopolitical conflict trading is expected to be a short - term market trend before a substantial supply disruption occurs. Oil prices may maintain a certain risk premium in the third quarter. In the medium - and long - term, the idle capacity to mitigate supply disruption risks is mainly concentrated in OPEC+. The demand side's support for oil prices is expected to be limited. The downward economic growth trend and structural changes in oil consumption restrict the medium - and long - term demand growth space. In the second half of the year, pricing drivers are expected to come more from the supply side. Without geopolitical conflict disturbances, the pattern of stronger supply elasticity will still suppress the rebound space of oil prices. The Brent price is expected to fluctuate between $60 - 80 per barrel. If a substantial supply disruption occurs due to geopolitical conflicts, it will bring significant upward risks to oil prices [5][113] Summary According to the Table of Contents 1. 1H25 Oil Price Trend Review - In the first half of 2025, the average Brent oil price was around $71 per barrel, a decrease of about 7% compared to the second half of last year. In the second quarter, the implied volatility of oil prices rose significantly twice in April and June. In early April, the US announced a reciprocal tariff policy, and OPEC+ unexpectedly accelerated production growth, causing oil prices to drop nearly $15 per barrel in a short time. Brent twice fell below $60 per barrel, hitting a four - year low. In June, Israel's sudden air strike on Iran led to a sharp rise in oil prices. The SC crude oil futures in Shanghai outperformed Brent due to geopolitical conflicts [17] 2. Geopolitical Conflict Risks Rise and Fall Sharply, Testing Global Supply Stability 2.1. The Iran - Israel Conflict Re - triggers Market Concerns about the Navigation Safety of the "Oil Choke Point" - The Iran - Israel conflict on June 13 led to a sharp rise in geopolitical conflict risks and a significant increase in oil prices. Iran's current oil production and exports are at a high level. Sanctions may affect Iran's supply in the long term, and the US may further upgrade sanctions. The passage interruption risk of the Strait of Hormuz is more likely to cause market panic. The trade flow of crude oil and petroleum products through the Strait of Hormuz accounts for about 27% of the global total. Only a few countries have pipelines to bypass it. Geopolitical conflicts also affect the pricing differences of oil prices in different regions and the crack spread of petroleum products [21][22][25][27][32] 2.2. Venezuela's Supply Declines Marginally, and Russia's Supply Remains Stable - Chevron's operating license in Venezuela expired on May 27. Venezuela's crude oil production and exports have declined. Russia's crude oil exports in the first five months averaged about 3.35 million barrels per day, a year - on - year decrease of 250,000 barrels per day. Currently, Russia's supply remains stable [39][42] 3. OPEC+ Production Policy Tends to Maintain Market Share - Eight OPEC+ member countries will increase production by 411,000 barrels per day in July. OPEC+ production has rebounded since April but is less than the agreed - upon increase target. The main purpose of increasing production is to maintain market share. Most countries have a certain scale of theoretical idle capacity. Kazakhstan's over - production has led to an increased risk of it exiting OPEC+ [44][45][46][51] 4. Non - OPEC+ Supply: US Production Growth Potential is Constrained, and Offshore Production will Contribute the Main Increment 4.1. The Negative Impact of Falling Oil Prices on US Shale Oil Production Growth is Apparent - US crude oil production growth has slowed down. The decline in oil prices has significantly inhibited the capital expenditure willingness of US upstream producers. The number of oil rigs and fracturing equipment has decreased, and the free cash flow of listed shale oil producers has deteriorated. The negative impact of low oil prices on shale oil supply growth has begun to appear [55][61][62][63] 4.2. Conventional Offshore Oilfield Projects are Expected to Contribute Most of the Non - OPEC+ Increment - From now until the end of 2026, global offshore oilfield projects are in a capacity release cycle. Brazil, Guyana, and the US offshore are expected to contribute the main increments. Brazil's production is expected to increase to around 3.9 million barrels per day. Guyana's full - load production is expected to approach 1 million barrels per day. The US Gulf of Mexico's offshore oil production is expected to remain around 1.8 million barrels per day. Canada's future production growth is limited [69][72][75][76] 5. The Expectation of Slowing Economic Growth and Consumption Structure Transformation Restrict the Demand Growth Space 5.1. China's Refinery Operating Rates Continue to Differentiate, and Processing Volume Growth is Weak - China's industrial crude oil processing volume from January to May increased by 0.3% year - on - year. The operating rates of different types of refineries in China are differentiated. The production of gasoline, diesel, and kerosene has decreased, and the proportion of kerosene in exports has increased. China's crude oil imports have increased slightly, and inventories have risen [81][82][86][88] 5.2. Global Crude Oil Inventories Rise, and Refined Oil Inventories Remain at a Low Level - The processing volumes of major global refining regions have shown mixed trends. Global crude oil inventories have risen, with non - OECD countries, especially China, contributing to the increase. Refined oil inventories in Europe and the US are still at a low level. Diesel demand improvement needs to be further verified, and gasoline demand shows a structural change [93][96][98][99] 5.3. Multiple Factors Restrict the Global Demand Outlook - The three major institutions have lowered their forecasts for global oil demand growth in 2025. The long - term structural changes in oil consumption, such as the increase in new energy vehicle penetration and the continuation of the home - office model, restrict the growth of oil demand [106][109] 6. Investment Recommendations - Geopolitical conflict trading is expected to be short - term before a substantial supply disruption. In the third quarter, oil prices may maintain a risk premium. In the second half of the year, pricing is more driven by the supply side. The Brent price is expected to fluctuate between $60 - 80 per barrel. A substantial supply disruption due to geopolitical conflicts will bring significant upward risks to oil prices [113]