Tebon Securities·2025-06-25 09:24Investment Rating - The report assigns a "Buy" rating for the company [1] Core Views - The company is a leading integrated energy company in China, with a focus on oil and gas exploration, refining, and chemical production [8][9] - The refining sector is experiencing weak market conditions, leading to short-term profit pressures [15] - The company is committed to enhancing shareholder returns through a structured value management plan and significant cash dividends [62] Summary by Sections Market Performance - The company's stock price has shown a relative performance against the CSI 300 index, with a 17% fluctuation expected by mid-2025 [2][3] Financial Performance - In 2024, the company reported a revenue of 3,074.6 billion yuan, a decrease of 4.3% year-on-year, and a net profit of 50.3 billion yuan, down 16.8% year-on-year [15][4] - For Q1 2025, the company achieved a revenue of 735.4 billion yuan, a decline of 6.9% year-on-year, but a significant sequential increase of 3.9% [15] Business Segments - Exploration and Development: The company has made progress in increasing reserves and production, with a capital expenditure of 175 billion yuan in 2024, and a focus on high-quality exploration [19][21] - Refining: The refining segment is under pressure due to weak demand and narrowing price spreads, with a revenue of 1,481.5 billion yuan in 2024, down 3.2% year-on-year [43][44] - Chemicals: The chemical sector is facing a challenging supply-demand balance, with a revenue of 523.9 billion yuan in 2024, up 1.7% year-on-year, but a significant drop in profitability [50][52] - Marketing and Distribution: The company is transitioning to a comprehensive energy service provider, with a total sales volume of 239.3 million tons in 2024, a slight increase of 0.1% year-on-year [55][59] Shareholder Returns - The company plans to distribute a cash dividend of 0.286 yuan per share in 2024, with a payout ratio of approximately 75% when including share buybacks [62][65] Earnings Forecast - The company is expected to see a gradual recovery in net profit from 51.1 billion yuan in 2025 to 62.9 billion yuan in 2027, with corresponding EPS growth [4][66]