2025年中期策略：聚焦供需优化与末端赋能，布局航空及直营快递

Core Insights - The report emphasizes the focus on supply-demand optimization and end empowerment in the aviation and direct express delivery sectors, recommending investments in these areas for H2 2025 [2][24]. Aviation Sector - The aviation sector is expected to see continued supply-demand optimization, with capacity utilization rates projected to exceed 2019 levels during peak seasons. Supply growth is anticipated to be limited due to a low number of existing orders and ongoing production capacity issues at Boeing and Airbus, leading to a backlog of over 6,500 and 8,600 aircraft respectively [2][24][52]. - Demand for air travel is projected to grow at a high single-digit rate, driven by stable economic conditions and improved visa policies, particularly for international routes. Passenger volume is expected to increase by 7% year-on-year in 2025, with a cumulative growth of 18% compared to 2019 [2][21][100]. - The report highlights that the average seat occupancy rate for the industry is expected to reach 84.1%, an increase of 2.1 percentage points year-on-year, indicating improved profitability for airlines [41][100]. Logistics Sector - The direct express delivery sector is positioned for growth, particularly with the application of unmanned logistics vehicles, which are expected to reduce costs and improve efficiency. SF Express is highlighted as a key player benefiting from this trend, with a market share of 64% in the time-sensitive delivery segment [2][15]. - The report notes that the express delivery business volume has exceeded market expectations, with a year-on-year growth of 20.1% in the first five months of 2025, totaling 787.7 billion packages [15][21]. Market Performance - The transportation sector has shown mixed performance in 2025, with a decline of 2.7% year-to-date, underperforming the broader index by 1.4 percentage points. The express delivery segment has seen the highest growth at 14.7%, largely driven by the performance of SF Express [6][11]. - The report indicates that the shipping and port sectors are experiencing high demand due to export activities, with container throughput increasing by 8.3% year-on-year as of June 22, 2025 [12][11]. Passenger Travel Trends - Passenger traffic in civil aviation has shown a robust increase, with a total of 3.1 billion passengers recorded in the first five months of 2025, reflecting a year-on-year growth of 6.3% [21][28]. - The report highlights that international passenger traffic is expected to grow significantly, with a 26% increase year-on-year, indicating a strong recovery in international travel [25][28].