Ruida Futures(SZ:002961) Rui Da Qi Huo·2025-06-25 09:47Report Summary 1. Report Industry Investment Rating No investment rating was provided in the report. 2. Core Viewpoint The V2509 is expected to fluctuate in the short - term. Attention should be paid to the support around 4800 and the resistance around 4900. The domestic PVC industry is in a period of intensive maintenance, with expected decreasing capacity utilization. The domestic downstream is in the off - season, and the cost factors are complex. The inventory pressure is not significant, and the de - stocking trend has slowed down [3][4]. 3. Summary by Directory 3.1 Futures Market - The closing price of PVC futures was 4871 yuan/ton, up 27 yuan/ton. The trading volume was 729,041 lots, down 461,016 lots. The open interest was 922,719 lots, down 12,242 lots [3]. - The long position of the top 20 futures holders was 739,041 lots, down 8,461 lots; the short position was 738,557 lots, down 24,222 lots; the net long position was 484 lots, up 15,761 lots [3]. 3.2 Spot Market - In the East China region, the price of ethylene - based PVC was 4970 yuan/ton, down 20 yuan/ton; the price of calcium carbide - based PVC was 4750 yuan/ton, down 65.77 yuan/ton. In the South China region, the price of ethylene - based PVC was 4950 yuan/ton, down 32.5 yuan/ton; the price of calcium carbide - based PVC was 4821.25 yuan/ton, down 53.75 yuan/ton [3]. - The CIF price of PVC in China was 710 US dollars/ton, unchanged; the CIF price in Southeast Asia was 670 US dollars/ton, unchanged; the FOB price in Northwest Europe was 740 US dollars/ton, unchanged. The basis of PVC was - 131 yuan/ton, down 27 yuan/ton [3]. 3.3 Upstream Situation - The mainstream average price of calcium carbide in Central China was 2700 yuan/ton, unchanged; in North China, it was 2698.33 yuan/ton, unchanged; in Northwest China, it was 2450 yuan/ton, down 20 yuan/ton. The mainstream price of liquid chlorine in Inner Mongolia was 50.5 yuan/ton, unchanged [3]. - The mid - price of VCM CFR Far East was 524 US dollars/ton, unchanged; the mid - price of VCM CFR Southeast Asia was 564 US dollars/ton, unchanged. The mid - price of EDC CFR Far East was 176 US dollars/ton, unchanged; the mid - price of EDC CFR Southeast Asia was 178 US dollars/ton, unchanged [3]. 3.4 Industry Situation - The weekly operating rate of PVC was 78.62%, down 0.63 percentage points. The operating rate of calcium carbide - based PVC was 80.43%, down 1.34 percentage points; the operating rate of ethylene - based PVC was 73.81%, up 1.22 percentage points [3]. - The total social inventory of PVC was 35.51 million tons, up 0.03 million tons. The total social inventory in the East China region was 31.23 million tons, up 0.01 million tons; the total social inventory in the South China region was 4.28 million tons, up 0.02 million tons [3]. 3.5 Downstream Situation - The national real - estate climate index was 93.72, down 0.14. The cumulative value of new housing construction area was 231.8361 million square meters, up 53.4777 million square meters. The cumulative value of real - estate construction area was 6.2501954 billion square meters, up 47.0449 million square meters. The cumulative value of real - estate development investment was 1915.481 billion yuan, up 428.168 billion yuan [3]. 3.6 Options Market - The 20 - day historical volatility of PVC was 13.14%, down 0.99 percentage points; the 40 - day historical volatility was 15.75%, down 0.02 percentage points [3]. - The implied volatility of at - the - money put options was 20.45%, down 1.06 percentage points; the implied volatility of at - the - money call options was 20.45%, down 1.06 percentage points [3]. 3.7 Industry News - On June 25, the cash - on - delivery price of PVCSG5 in Changzhou warehouses increased by 10 - 30 yuan/ton compared to the previous day, with the price ranging from 4700 to 4780 yuan/ton [3]. - From June 13th to 19th, China's PVC capacity utilization rate was 78.62%, a 0.63% decrease from the previous period [3]. - As of June 19th, the new sample statistics of PVC social inventory decreased by 0.74% month - on - month to 569,300 tons, a 37.97% decrease year - on - year [3].