玉米淀粉日报-20250625

1. Report Industry Investment Rating - No relevant content provided 2. Core Viewpoints of the Report - The US corn planting is basically finished, with the price in a bottom - oscillating state. There is potential for price increases due to possible weather - related speculation later [5][10]. - The spot price of corn in North China is expected to be firm in the short - term, and the price in Heilongjiang has support at around 2,200 yuan/ton. In the medium - to - long - term, the policy of grain auction will have an impact on the price [8]. - The spot price of corn starch is relatively stable, and the inventory has decreased this week. The short - term decline of the 09 starch contract on the futures market is limited [9]. - For trading strategies, the domestic 09 corn will continue to oscillate narrowly, and short - term long positions can be considered for 09 starch. For arbitrage, those with spot goods can short 09 corn, and widen the spread between 09 corn and starch when it is low [10][11][12]. - For option strategies, enterprises with spot goods can sell corn call options [15]. 3. Summary by Relevant Catalogs 3.1 Data 3.1.1 Futures Market - The closing prices of various corn and corn starch futures contracts on June 25, 2025, showed different degrees of decline. For example, C2601 closed at 2273, down 8 (- 0.35%); CS2601 closed at 2668, down 11 (- 0.41%) [2]. - In terms of trading volume and open interest changes, C2505 had a significant increase in trading volume (37.66%) and open interest (10.87%), while CS2509 had a 9.44% increase in trading volume and a 17.95% increase in open interest [2]. 3.1.2 Spot Market and Basis - Corn spot prices in different regions: Qinggang was 2280 yuan, Jiajisheng was 2090 yuan, etc. The price in Shouguang increased by 10 yuan. The basis of different regions varied, from - 287 yuan in Jiajisheng to 155 yuan in Zhucheng Xingmao [2]. - Corn starch spot prices in different regions: Longfeng was 2780 yuan, Zhongliang was 2800 yuan, etc. The price in Yufeng increased by 10 yuan. The basis of different regions was between 91 yuan and 301 yuan [2]. 3.1.3 Spread - Corn inter - delivery spreads: C01 - C05 was - 26, up 6; C05 - C09 was - 78, down 2 [2]. - Corn starch inter - delivery spreads: CS01 - CS05 was - 21, down 2; CS05 - CS09 was - 43, up 3 [2]. - Cross - variety spreads: CS09 - C09 was 355, unchanged; CS01 - C01 was 395, down 3 [2]. 3.2 Market Outlook 3.2.1 Corn - The US corn is in a bottom - oscillating state, and the import profit of foreign corn is high. The 8 - month Brazilian import price is 1951 yuan [5]. - The northern port flat - hatch price is stable, the northeast corn spot price is stable, the supply in North China is decreasing, and the spot price is firm. The price difference between northeast and North China corn is widening [5][8]. - Wheat prices in North China have fallen, the substitution effect of wheat on corn continues, and the domestic breeding demand is still weak. However, due to low supply, the corn spot price will rise in the short - term [8]. - The import of grains has decreased significantly, which is expected to be beneficial to the spot market. The market is currently focused on the auction policy, and brown rice and corn may be auctioned after July [8]. 3.2.2 Corn Starch - The number of trucks arriving at Shandong deep - processing plants has decreased, the price of corn in Shandong has increased, and the corn starch price in Shandong is around 2900 yuan. The northeast corn starch spot price is stable [9]. - This week, the corn starch inventory decreased to 132.8 million tons, a decrease of 3.2 million tons from last week, a monthly decrease of 5.95% and a year - on - year increase of 26.4% [9]. - The starch price mainly depends on the corn price and downstream inventory - building. The by - product price is relatively strong, the spot price difference between corn and starch is low. In the medium - to - long - term, due to weak demand, starch enterprises will be in a loss state for a long time, and the profit will be restored [9]. 3.3 Trading Strategies - Unilateral trading: The domestic 09 corn will continue to oscillate narrowly, and short - term long positions can be considered for 09 starch [11]. - Arbitrage trading: Those with spot goods can short 09 corn, and widen the spread between 09 corn and starch when it is low, with oscillating operations [12]. 3.4 Corn Options - Option strategy: Enterprises with spot goods can sell corn call options [15]. - Option contract information on June 25, 2025: For C2509 - P - 2380.DCE, the underlying asset price was 2377, the closing price was 36.50, and the IV was 4.5 [15]. 3.5 Relevant Attachments - The attachments include six figures, showing the spot price of corn in different regions, the basis of corn 09 contract, the 9 - 1 spread of corn and corn starch, the basis of corn starch 09 contract, and the spread of corn starch 09 contract [17][19][21]