宝城期货煤焦早报-20250625

1. Report Industry Investment Rating - No relevant content provided 2. Core Viewpoints of the Report - The short - term and medium - term trends of both coking coal and coke 2509 are expected to be volatile, while the intraday trends are expected to be weakly volatile. The overall view for both is a volatile approach [1]. - For coking coal, geopolitical factors drive it to decline in a volatile manner. After the release of market sentiment, it will return to the fundamental logic. With the end of the safety production month in June, there is an expectation of increased supply in July, so it is expected to operate weakly and volatile in the near future [5]. - For coke, the market sentiment has changed with the accumulation of positive factors, and the long - short game has intensified, leading to a wide - range volatile operation at a low level. In the future, considering the supply of coking coal and terminal demand, the market in June is expected to be in a stalemate, and coke futures may maintain a wide - range volatile operation [6]. 3. Summaries by Related Catalogs 3.1 Coking Coal - Price and Cost: The latest quotation of Mongolian coking coal at the Ganqimao Port is 865.0 yuan/ton, with a flat week - on - week comparison, and the equivalent futures warehouse receipt cost is about 834 yuan/ton [5]. - Supply: During the safety month, domestic coking coal production has contracted due to safety inspections, environmental protection, and operating pressure. The price inversion of imported coal has also suppressed imports, but there is an expectation of increased supply in July after the end of the safety production month [5]. - Market Influence: Geopolitical issues such as the Israel - Iran situation have affected coking coal. After the cease - fire, the decline in crude oil futures has weakened coking coal futures [5]. 3.2 Coke - Price: The latest quotation of the flat - price index of quasi - first - grade wet - quenched coke at Rizhao Port is 1220 yuan/ton, with a week - on - week decrease of 3.94%; the ex - warehouse price of quasi - first - grade wet - quenched coke at Qingdao Port is 1140 yuan/ton, with a week - on - week decrease of 2.56% [6]. - Market Sentiment and Trend: The accumulation of positive factors has changed the market sentiment, and the closing of some short positions has intensified the long - short game, resulting in a wide - range volatile operation at a low level. Considering coking coal supply and terminal demand, the market in June is expected to be in a stalemate [6].