地缘溢价缩水，能化再度走低

Report Industry Investment Rating No relevant content provided. Core Viewpoints - The domestic Shanghai rubber futures 2509 contract is expected to maintain a weak and volatile trend due to the full - scale tapping in Southeast Asian and domestic natural rubber producing areas, the consultation on zero - tariff for natural rubber imports between China and Thailand, and the decline in domestic downstream tire production [4]. - The domestic methanol futures 2509 contract is likely to continue its weak and volatile trend as the temporary cease - fire agreement between Iran and Israel has cooled down the geopolitical risks in the Middle East, leading to a retracement of the premium on energy - chemical commodities [4]. - The prices of domestic and international crude oil futures are expected to remain weak and volatile under the pressure of bearish sentiment, also because of the cooling of geopolitical risks in the Middle East and the retracement of the premium on energy - chemical commodities [5]. Summary by Directory 1. Industry Dynamics Rubber - As of June 22, 2025, the total inventory of natural rubber in bonded and general trade in Qingdao was 617,300 tons, a week - on - week increase of 10,300 tons or 1.70%. The bonded area inventory decreased by 3.34% to 81,200 tons, while the general trade inventory increased by 2.51% to 536,100 tons. The inbound rate of bonded warehouses decreased by 1.64 percentage points, and the outbound rate decreased by 0.49 percentage points. The inbound rate of general trade warehouses increased by 0.43 percentage points, and the outbound rate decreased by 1.52 percentage points [8]. - As of June 20, 2025, the capacity utilization rate of China's semi - steel tire sample enterprises was 61.39%, a week - on - week increase of 2.69 percentage points and a year - on - year increase of 3.19 percentage points. The capacity utilization rate of China's full - steel tire sample enterprises was 71.54%, a week - on - week increase of 1.56 percentage points and a year - on - year decrease of 7.56 percentage points [8]. - In May 2025, the inventory warning index of Chinese automobile dealers was 52.7%, a year - on - year decrease of 5.5 percentage points and a month - on - month decrease of 7.1 percentage points. The index was above the boom - bust line, indicating an improvement in the automobile circulation industry [8]. - In May 2025, China's automobile production and sales were 2.649 million and 2.686 million vehicles respectively, a month - on - month increase of 1.1% and 3.7%, and a year - on - year increase of 11.6% and 11.2%. From January to May 2025, China's automobile production and sales were 12.826 million and 12.748 million vehicles respectively, a year - on - year increase of 12.7% and 10.9% [9]. - In May 2025, China's heavy - truck market sold about 83,000 vehicles, a month - on - month decrease of 5% and a year - on - year increase of about 6%. From January to May 2025, the cumulative sales of China's heavy - truck market were about 435,500 vehicles, a year - on - year increase of about 1% [9]. Methanol - As of the week of June 20, 2025, the average domestic methanol operating rate was 83.82%, a week - on - week increase of 1.65%, a month - on - month increase of 1.58%, and a significant increase of 7.23% compared with the same period last year. The average weekly methanol output in China reached 1.9979 million tons, a week - on - week increase of 15,200 tons, a month - on - month increase of 36,400 tons, and a significant increase of 293,600 tons compared with 1.7043 million tons in the same period last year [10]. - As of the week of June 20, 2025, the domestic formaldehyde operating rate was 29.88%, a week - on - week increase of 0.11%. The dimethyl ether operating rate was 7.53%, a week - on - week increase of 3.19%. The acetic acid operating rate was 91.42%, a week - on - week decrease of 7.39%. The MTBE operating rate was 48.27%, a week - on - week decrease of 1.06%. The average operating load of domestic coal (methanol) to olefin plants was 79.76%, a week - on - week decrease of 0.30 percentage points and a month - on - month increase of 1.67% [10]. - As of the week of June 20, 2025, the domestic methanol - to - olefin futures market profit was - 317 yuan/ton, a week - on - week decrease of 239 yuan/ton and a month - on - month decrease of 596 yuan/ton [10]. - As of the week of June 20, 2025, the port methanol inventory in East and South China was 449,500 tons, a week - on - week decrease of 64,500 tons, a month - on - month increase of 55,700 tons, and a significant decrease of 72,600 tons compared with the same period last year. The methanol inventory in East China ports was 309,200 tons, a week - on - week decrease of 27,100 tons, and the inventory in South China ports was 140,300 tons, a week - on - week decrease of 37,400 tons. As of the week of June 19, 2025, the total inland methanol inventory in China was 367,400 tons, a week - on - week decrease of 11,700 tons, a month - on - month increase of 31,300 tons, and a decrease of 59,900 tons compared with 427,300 tons in the same period last year [11][12]. Crude Oil - As of the week of June 13, 2025, the number of active oil drilling rigs in the United States was 439, a week - on - week decrease of 3 and a decrease of 49 compared with the same period last year. The average daily crude oil production in the United States was 13.431 million barrels, a week - on - week increase of 0.3 million barrels per day and a year - on - year increase of 2.31 million barrels per day [12]. - As of the week of June 13, 2025, the U.S. commercial crude oil inventory (excluding strategic petroleum reserves) was 421 million barrels, a week - on - week decrease of 11.473 million barrels and a significant decrease of 36.61 million barrels compared with the same period last year. The crude oil inventory in Cushing, Oklahoma was 22.688 million barrels, a week - on - week decrease of 995,000 barrels. The U.S. strategic petroleum reserve (SPR) inventory was 402 million barrels, a week - on - week increase of 230,000 barrels. The U.S. refinery operating rate was 93.2%, a week - on - week decrease of 1.1 percentage points, a month - on - month increase of 2.5 percentage points, and a year - on - year decrease of 1.30 percentage points [13]. - Since June 2025, international crude oil futures prices have shown a stable and volatile trend, with an increase in market bullish power. As of June 17, 2025, the average non - commercial net long positions in WTI crude oil were 191,941 contracts, a week - on - week increase of 23,984 contracts and a significant increase of 13,730 contracts or 7.70% compared with the May average of 178,211 contracts. As of June 17, 2025, the average net long positions of Brent crude oil futures funds were 216,664 contracts, a week - on - week increase of 34,224 contracts and a significant increase of 81,129 contracts or 59.86% compared with the May average of 135,535 contracts [14]. 2. Spot Price Table | Variety | Spot Price | Change from Previous Day | Futures Main Contract | Change from Previous Day | Basis | Change | | ---- | ---- | ---- | ---- | ---- | ---- | ---- | | Shanghai Rubber | 13,850 yuan/ton | +0 yuan/ton | 13,770 yuan/ton | +105 yuan/ton | 80 yuan/ton | - 105 yuan/ton | | Methanol | 2,655 yuan/ton | - 10 yuan/ton | 2,391 yuan/ton | +12 yuan/ton | 264 yuan/ton | - 12 yuan/ton | | Crude Oil | 484.7 yuan/barrel | +0.1 yuan/barrel | 508.6 yuan/barrel | - 10.0 yuan/barrel | - 23.9 yuan/barrel | +10.1 yuan/barrel | [16] 3. Related Charts - Rubber: There are charts related to rubber basis, rubber 9 - 1 spread, Shanghai Futures Exchange rubber futures inventory, Qingdao bonded area rubber inventory, full - steel tire operating rate trend, and semi - steel tire operating rate trend [17][19][21]. - Methanol: There are charts related to methanol basis, methanol 9 - 1 spread, methanol domestic port inventory, methanol inland social inventory, methanol - to - olefin operating rate change, and coal - to - methanol cost accounting [30][32][34]. - Crude Oil: There are charts related to crude oil basis, Shanghai Futures Exchange crude oil futures inventory, U.S. crude oil commercial inventory, U.S. refinery operating rate, WTI crude oil net position change, and Brent crude oil net position change [43][45][47].