瑞达期货苯乙烯产业日报-20250625

Project Category 1. Report Industry Investment Rating - Not mentioned in the content 2. Core Viewpoints of the Report - EB2508 showed a volatile upward trend, closing at 7,298 yuan/ton. The supply of styrene increased last week, with production up 7.04% to 361,900 tons and capacity utilization up 5.2% to 79.01%. The demand for downstream products such as EPS, PS, and ABS decreased by 0.88% to 247,300 tons. Factory inventory increased by 2.25% to 188,800 tons, East China port inventory increased by 28.21% to 85,000 tons, and South China port inventory increased by 44% to 18,000 tons. With the restart of Hengli and Shenghong's plants, the spot supply is expected to remain abundant. Downstream demand is in the off - season, mainly for rigid needs. High inventory and shrinking profits in downstream products limit demand growth. The overall inventory is at a relatively high level in the same period of history. In terms of cost, the cease - fire between Iran and Israel led to a significant drop in international oil prices, and pure benzene may decline under the influence of its own supply - demand contradictions. Although the spot supply - demand and cost are bearish, the deep discount of the futures main contract restricts the downside space. In the short term, EB2508 is expected to fluctuate within the range of 7,120 - 7,360 yuan/ton [2] 3. Summary by Relevant Catalogs Futures Market - The closing price of the active styrene futures contract was 7,298 yuan/ton, with a change of 72 yuan. The trading volume of the active styrene futures contract (EB) was 3,055. The closing price of the July contract was 84 yuan lower. The long position of the top 20 holders decreased by 18,126 hands to 280,451 hands, the net long position decreased by 4,144 hands, and the short position was 7,245 hands. The spot price of styrene was 900 yuan/ton, the total number of warehouse receipts was 20 hands. The FOB South Korea middle price of styrene was 1,445 US dollars/ton, down 35 US dollars; the CFR China middle price was also down 35 US dollars [2] 现货市场 - The mainstream price of styrene in Northeast China decreased by 240 yuan/ton, in South China decreased by 190 yuan/ton, and in East China decreased by 350 yuan/ton [2] Upstream Situation - The CFR Northeast Asia middle price of ethylene was 861 US dollars/ton, unchanged; the CFR Southeast Asia middle price was unchanged; the CIF Northwest Europe middle price was 457 US dollars/ton, up 7.5 US dollars; the FD US Gulf price was down 6 US dollars. The spot price of pure benzene in the US Gulf was down 65 cents/gallon, the CIF price in Taiwan was 789.83 US dollars/ton, down 15 US dollars, the FOB price in Rotterdam was 6400 US dollars/ton, and the market price of pure benzene in South China remained unchanged, while in East China it decreased by 320 yuan/ton and in North China it decreased by 100 yuan/ton [2] Industry Situation - The total styrene operating rate was 79.01%, up 5.2%. The national styrene inventory was up 4,149 tons. The total inventory of East China's main ports was 85,000 tons, up 18,700 tons; the trade inventory of East China's main ports was up 21,300 tons [2] Downstream Situation - The operating rate of EPS was 63.97%, down 1.84%; the operating rate of ABS decreased by 0.11%; the operating rate of PS was 58.7%, up 0.4%; the operating rate of UPR remained at 30%; the operating rate of styrene - butadiene rubber was 74.09%, up 2.95% [2] Industry News - From June 13th to 19th, the total output of Chinese styrene factories was 361,900 tons, a month - on - month increase of 7.04% or 23,800 tons, and the capacity utilization rate was 79.01%, a month - on - month increase of 5.2%. The consumption of the main downstream products (EPS, PS, ABS) of styrene was 247,300 tons, a month - on - month decrease of 0.88%. As of June 23rd, the sample inventory of Jiangsu styrene ports was 85,000 tons, a month - on - month increase of 28.21%; the total inventory of the mainstream storage areas in South China was 18,000 tons, a month - on - month increase of 44% [2]