瑞达期货烧碱产业日报-20250625

Report Summary 1) Report Industry Investment Rating No investment rating information is provided in the report. 2) Core View of the Report SH2509 rose 0.09% to close at 2,279 yuan/ton. The supply - side capacity utilization increased slightly last week. The demand - side shows alumina in the resumption stage, and non - aluminum demand has mixed trends. The inventory is at a neutral - high level. With some device overhauls and restarts, the capacity utilization may decline. There is high medium - long - term supply pressure. The cost support is limited, and the caustic soda spot has room to fall. The futures price is at a discount, with low valuation below 2,200 but lacking upward - driving factors. SH2509 is expected to fluctuate in the range of 2,220 - 2,320 in the short term [3][4]. 3) Summary by Relevant Catalogs Futures Market - The main contract closing price of caustic soda was 2,279 yuan/ton, up 5 yuan; the futures holding volume was 290,686 lots, up 6,414 lots; the net holding volume of the top 20 futures was - 28,554 lots, up 1,200 lots; the futures trading volume was 462,028 lots, down 45,735 lots. The closing price of the January contract was 2,273 yuan/ton, up 4 yuan, and the May contract was 2,339 yuan/ton, up 1 yuan [3]. 现货市场 - The price of 32% ion - membrane caustic soda in Shandong was 780 yuan/ton, unchanged; in Jiangsu, it was 930 yuan/ton, unchanged. The converted 100% caustic soda price in Shandong was 2,437.5 yuan/ton, unchanged. The basis was 159 yuan/ton, down 5 yuan [3]. Upstream Situation - The mainstream price of raw salt in Shandong was 210 yuan/ton, unchanged; in the Northwest, it was 220 yuan/ton, unchanged. The price of steam coal was 635 yuan/ton, unchanged [3]. 产业情况 - The mainstream price of liquid chlorine in Shandong was 0 yuan/ton, up 25 yuan; in Jiangsu, it was - 100 yuan/ton, down 25 yuan [3]. 下游情况 - The spot price of viscose staple fiber was down 60 yuan/ton, and the spot price of alumina was 3,120 yuan/ton, down 10 yuan [3]. 行业消息 - From June 13th to 19th, the average capacity utilization rate of Chinese caustic soda sample enterprises with a capacity of 200,000 tons and above was 81.2%, up 0.3% week - on - week. As of June 19th, the factory inventory of fixed liquid caustic soda sample enterprises with a capacity of 200,000 tons and above nationwide was 366,500 tons [3]. 观点总结 - The supply - side capacity utilization increased 0.3% to 81.2% last week. The demand - side shows alumina in the resumption stage. Non - aluminum demand: the viscose staple fiber operating rate increased 0.24% to 80.80%, and the printing and dyeing operating rate decreased 0.64% to 60.73%. The liquid caustic soda factory inventory decreased 5.63% to 365,600 tons, at a neutral - high level. Dongying Huatai's 750,000 - ton device will be shut down for maintenance this week, and some devices are planned to restart, so the capacity utilization may decline. There are many new caustic soda production devices from June to July, with high medium - long - term supply pressure. The cost support is limited, the caustic soda spot has room to fall, the futures price is at a discount, and SH2509 is expected to fluctuate in the range of 2,220 - 2,320 in the short term [3][4]