Ruida Futures(SZ:002961) Rui Da Qi Huo·2025-06-25 09:51Report Industry Investment Rating - No relevant content provided Core View of the Report - Internationally, with the arrival of the monsoon season, the prospects of major sugar - producing countries in Asia have improved, with expectations of a recovery in production. Coupled with the increased supply of Brazilian sugar, the price of raw sugar is suppressed. Domestically, in May 2025, China's sugar imports were 350,000 tons, a significant increase of 220,000 tons compared to April and a sharp increase of 1954.9% year - on - year. The import window is open, and the import pressure has increased. However, approaching the summer consumption peak season, the food and beverage industry has inventory needs. Seasonal consumption such as cold drinks may pick up, providing some support for prices, slowing down the decline, and showing a short - term adjustment trend. Later, pay attention to the arrival of goods at ports and summer consumption [2] Summary by Related Catalogs Futures Market - The closing price of the futures main contract for sugar is 5,757 yuan/ton, up 47 from the previous period; the main contract position is 342,761 lots, down 6,312; the number of warehouse receipts is 24,612, down 150; the net long position of the top 20 futures positions is - 59,196 lots, up 4,497; the effective warehouse receipt forecast is 0, unchanged [2] 现货市场 - The estimated import processing price of Brazilian sugar within the quota is 4,450 yuan/ton, up 57; the estimated import price of Brazilian sugar outside the quota (50% tariff) is 5,653 yuan/ton, up 75; the estimated import processing price of Thai sugar within the quota is 4,460 yuan/ton, up 45; the estimated import price of Thai sugar outside the quota (50% tariff) is 5,665 yuan/ton, up 59; the spot price of white sugar in Kunming is 5,860 yuan/ton, unchanged; in Nanning is 6,070 yuan/ton, up 30; in Liuzhou is 6,110 yuan/ton, up 20 [2] Upstream Situation - The national sugar - crop planting area is 1,480 thousand hectares, up 60; the cumulative national sugar production is 1,116.21 million tons; the cumulative national sugar sales volume is 835.09 million tons, down 12.86; the planting area of sugar - cane in Guangxi is 811.38 thousand hectares, up 86.92 [2] Industry Situation - The national industrial inventory of sugar is 304.83 million tons, down 81.43; the national sugar sales rate is 72.69%, up 7.47; the monthly import volume of sugar is 350,000 tons, up 220,000; the total monthly sugar exports from Brazil are 2.2566 billion tons, up 704,000; the price difference between imported Brazilian sugar and the current price of Liuzhou sugar within the quota is 1,460 yuan/ton, down 66; the price difference between imported Thai sugar and Liuzhou sugar within the quota is 1,470 yuan/ton, down 54; the price difference between imported Brazilian sugar and the current price of Liuzhou sugar outside the quota (50% tariff) is 267 yuan/ton, down 84; the price difference between imported Thai sugar and Liuzhou sugar outside the quota (50% tariff) is 255 yuan/ton, down 68 [2] Downstream Situation - The cumulative year - on - year growth rate of refined sugar production is 16.7%, up 2.6; the cumulative year - on - year growth rate of soft drink production is 3%, down 0.9 [2] Option Market - The implied volatility of at - the - money call options for sugar is 9.36%, down 2; the implied volatility of at - the - money put options for sugar is 9.36%, down 2; the 20 - day historical volatility of sugar is 6.99%, up 1.42; the 60 - day historical volatility of sugar is 8.83%, up 0.3 [2] Industry News - The Indonesian Ministry of Agriculture stated that the country's sugar production in 2025 is 2.75 million tons, higher than last year's 2.45 million tons and the highest in the past five years. Internationally, with the arrival of the monsoon season, the prospects of major sugar - producing countries in Asia have improved, with expectations of a recovery in production [2]