Ruida Futures(SZ:002961) Rui Da Qi Huo·2025-06-25 09:58Report Summary 1. Report Industry Investment Rating No information provided on the industry investment rating. 2. Core Viewpoints - A股 major indices rose significantly, with the Shanghai Composite Index up 1.04%, the Shenzhen Component Index up 1.72%, and the ChiNext Index up 3.11%. The trading volume in the Shanghai and Shenzhen stock markets rebounded for three consecutive days, and over 3900 stocks rose. Non - bank finance and national defense and military industry sectors strengthened, while coal and petroleum and petrochemical sectors declined. - Overseas, the cease - fire agreement in the Middle East eased geopolitical conflicts. There are differences within the Fed regarding interest rate cuts, and the dollar - RMB exchange rate has weakened recently. - Domestically, economic fundamentals in May showed a decline in imports, exports, fixed - asset investment, and industrial added - value year - on - year. The real estate market is accelerating its decline, and only social retail sales increased. CPI and PPI data indicate future price pressures. Financial data shows that the M1 - M2 gap narrowed in May, social financing stock growth remained flat, and new RMB loans decreased year - on - year, suggesting insufficient real - economy financing demand. - The central bank and five other departments issued a document to promote consumer spending through financial means, with expanding domestic demand as the policy focus. - Overall, the domestic economic fundamentals are under pressure due to overseas tariff factors. Domestic demand recovery may support economic growth, the Fed may cut interest rates early, the RMB exchange - rate pressure is relieved, and the eased Middle East situation boosts market risk appetite. The strategy suggests light - position buying on dips [2]. 3. Summary by Directory Futures Quotes - Contract Prices: IF (2509) is at 3922.8 (+74.2), IH (2509) at 2722.6 (+42.6), IC (2509) at 5759.8 (+133.6), IM (2509) at 6119.6 (+131.0). Their corresponding secondary - main contracts also showed increases [2]. - Contract Spreads: IF - IH spread is 1210.4 (+21.8), IC - IF spread is 1899.2 (+45.0), etc. Some spreads increased while the IM - IC spread decreased by 3.0 [2]. - Quarter - to - Month Spreads: Most quarter - to - month spreads showed changes, with some increasing and some decreasing [2]. - Net Positions of Top 20 Holders: IF's net position is - 29,653.00 (- 415.0), IH's is - 12,784.00 (- 907.0), IC's is - 13,685.00 (+854.0), and IM's is - 34,131.00 (+1113.0) [2]. - Spot Prices and Basis: The spot prices of CSI 300, SSE 50, CSI 500, and CSI 1000 all rose, and the basis of their corresponding futures contracts also increased [2]. Market Sentiment - Trading Volume and Balance: A - share trading volume reached 16,395.06 billion yuan (+1914.47 billion), margin trading balance was 18,220.06 billion yuan (+51.05 billion), and north - bound trading volume was 1605.61 billion yuan (+228.25 billion) [2]. - Fund Flows and Policies: Main - force funds increased by 22.96 billion yuan, MLF net injection was 3000 billion yuan, and reverse - repurchase operations increased by 3653.0 billion yuan [2]. - Other Indicators: The proportion of rising stocks was 72.29% (- 15.91%), Shibor was 1.371% (+0.001%), and option prices and implied volatilities mostly increased [2]. Market Strength - Weakness Analysis - The overall A - share strength index was 7.30 (- 0.90), the technical - aspect index was 7.20 (- 1.60), and the capital - aspect index was 7.40 (- 0.10) [2]. Industry News - Israel and Iran agreed to a full - scale cease - fire, and the Fed Chair Powell indicated a wait - and - see attitude on interest - rate adjustments but did not rule out early rate cuts [2]. - The central bank and five other departments issued a guidance on financial support for boosting and expanding consumption, setting up a 5000 - billion - yuan re - loan and promoting long - term capital entry into the capital market [2].