黑色金属日报-20250625

Report Industry Investment Ratings - Thread: ★★★ [1] - Hot Rolled Coil: ★★★ [1] - Iron Ore: ★★★ [1] - Coke: ★★★ [1] - Coking Coal: No rating provided [1] - Silicon Manganese: ★☆☆ [1] - Silicon Ferroalloy: ★☆★ [1] Core Views - The overall demand for steel is weak, the market sentiment is cautious, and the futures market is under pressure [2] - The short - term supply - demand contradiction of iron ore is limited, and it is expected to fluctuate [3] - Coke and coking coal prices may have upward drivers, but are affected by factors such as oil prices [4][6] - The fundamentals of silicon manganese have limited improvement, and the market temporarily expects a short - term rise [7] - The demand for silicon ferroalloy is acceptable, and the market temporarily expects a short - term rise [8] Summary by Related Catalogs Steel - The futures market is weakly volatile. The demand for thread in the off - season is under pressure, the production has increased, and the inventory reduction has slowed down. The demand for hot - rolled coil is resilient, the production remains high, and the inventory has decreased [2] - The blast furnace still has profits, and the molten iron production remains relatively high. However, the off - season carrying capacity is insufficient, and the negative feedback expectation still ferments repeatedly [2] - The downstream demand is weak, the demand expectation is pessimistic, and the market is cautious. Pay attention to terminal demand and policy changes [2] Iron Ore - The global shipment of iron ore is at a high level, and there is an expectation of a year - end rush. The port inventory in China has begun to stabilize and increase, and the supply pressure has increased marginally [3] - In the off - season, the terminal demand has resilience, the steel mill profitability rate has improved, the molten iron production remains high, and the steel mills have weak willingness to actively reduce production and have short - term replenishment actions [3] - The short - term supply - demand contradiction is limited, and the trend is expected to be volatile [3] Coke - The price has risen significantly during the day, and there is an expectation of a price increase in the market [4] - The daily production of molten iron has increased slightly to 242.18 tons per day. The coke profit is meager, and the daily production of coking has continued to decline from the annual high [4] - The overall coke inventory has decreased, and the purchasing willingness of traders is still low. The coke price is affected by oil price fluctuations, and there may be an upward driver [4] Coking Coal - The price has risen significantly during the day. Policy may strengthen the control of over - production, which may affect production [6] - The production of coking coal mines has continued to decline. Due to the safety production month and environmental inspections, some mines have reduced production [6] - The spot auction market has improved slightly, the transaction price has risen slightly, and the terminal inventory has continued to decline. The coking coal price is affected by the sharp decline in oil prices and may be strongly volatile [6] Silicon Manganese - The price volatility has increased during the day. Due to previous continuous production cuts, the inventory level has decreased, but the weekly production has begun to increase, and the fundamentals have limited improvement [7] - Pay attention to the August forward price of South32 to China. In the short term, the manganese ore inventory is low, and the price of Comilog oxidized ore has risen slightly [7] - The trading logic of the futures market changes rapidly, and it is temporarily bullish in the short term [7] Silicon Ferroalloy - The price has fluctuated upward during the day. The molten iron production has risen above 242, the export demand is about 30,000 tons, and the marginal impact is small [8] - The production of magnesium metal has increased month - on - month, the secondary demand remains high, and the overall demand is acceptable [8] - The supply of silicon ferroalloy has continued to decline, the market transaction level is average, and the inventory has decreased. Some production is in cash - flow loss, which is conducive to inventory reduction, and it is temporarily bullish in the short term [8]