能源日报-20250625

1. Report Industry Investment Ratings - Crude oil: ★☆☆, indicating a bullish/bearish bias with a driving force for price movement, but limited operability in the market [1] - Fuel oil: ★☆★ [1] - Low-sulfur fuel oil: Not clearly indicated in a comparable rating style [1] - Asphalt: ☆☆☆, suggesting a relatively balanced short - term trend with poor operability, and investors are advised to wait and see [1] - Liquefied petroleum gas: ☆☆☆ [1] 2. Core Viewpoints - The supply - demand situation of crude oil remains loose, and the rebound is mainly supported by Middle - East geopolitical risks. After the cease - fire agreement between Israel and Iran, the risk premium will decline, and Brent will return to the $57 - 70 per barrel range [1] - After the Middle - East conflict eases, fuel - related futures follow the decline of oil prices. The decline of high - sulfur fuel oil (FU) is deeper than that of low - sulfur fuel oil (LU) [2] - In July, the planned asphalt production of refineries is 247 million tons. The supply may be compressed, but the terminal demand is expected to be boosted, and the BU crack spread continues to rise [2] - The international market of liquefied petroleum gas may decline due to supply pressure after the geopolitical risk eases, and the domestic market faces the pressure of falling gross profit after the increase in import costs [3] 3. Summaries According to Different Products Crude Oil - Overnight, international oil prices declined, with the SC08 contract dropping 1.93% during the day. The supply - demand situation remains loose, and the rebound is mainly supported by geopolitical risks. The cease - fire agreement between Israel and Iran will lead to a decline in risk premiums, and Brent will return to the $57 - 70 per barrel range. Investors can consider short - selling strategies at the upper boundary of the range [1] Fuel Oil & Low - Sulfur Fuel Oil - After the Middle - East conflict eases, fuel - related futures follow the decline of oil prices. The decline of FU is deeper than that of LU. The demand for ship refueling and deep - processing is low, and the demand for high - sulfur fuel oil in power generation in the Middle East and North Africa is discounted. The low - sulfur fuel oil crack spread rebounds from a low level [2] Asphalt - In July, the planned production of refineries is 247 million tons. Some refineries' maintenance is postponed, and one refinery resumes production. The supply may be compressed, and the terminal demand is expected to be boosted. The BU crack spread continues to rise [2] Liquefied Petroleum Gas - The international market may decline due to supply pressure after the geopolitical risk eases. The domestic chemical demand increases, but there is pressure on gross profit after the increase in import costs. The supply pressure will drive the price down [3]