冠通每日交易策略-20250625

Report Industry Investment Rating No relevant information provided. Core Views - The urea market is currently in a state of loose supply and demand, and the price is expected to be volatile and slightly stronger in the short term. Attention should be paid to the export situation of domestic urea [3]. - The geopolitical risks in the Middle East have sharply cooled down, greatly alleviating the market's concerns about the interruption of crude oil supply. It is recommended to operate cautiously and buy put options on crude oil with a light position [6]. - The copper price is expected to remain volatile and slightly stronger in the near term. However, due to the weakness of the spot market, the premium will weaken, which is expected to drive downstream purchases at low prices. Attention should be paid to the inflation data in the later period [12]. - The upward space of lithium carbonate is limited, and the pattern of oscillation and short - bias remains unchanged [14]. - It is recommended to operate cautiously in the asphalt market and go long on the 09 - 12 spread at low prices [15]. - PP, plastic, PVC, and other products are expected to be in a low - level oscillation pattern due to factors such as increased supply, weak demand, and cooling geopolitical risks in the Middle East [17][18][20]. - The rebound amplitude of coking coal may slow down under the easing of geopolitical conflicts [21]. - The price of rebar is expected to maintain a weak oscillation pattern in the short term due to high supply, pressure on raw materials, and weak demand [23]. - The hot - rolled coil market will still face significant downward pressure, and the price is expected to continue the weak oscillation trend [25]. Summary by Related Catalogs Hot - Spot Varieties Urea - The urea futures market opened low and moved high, rising nearly 3% during the day. The spot market sentiment became high, and the export and port - collection accelerated, increasing enterprise shipments [3]. - On the supply side, some Henan plants had temporary shutdowns, and the daily urea output dropped below 200,000 tons in the short term. On the demand side, the market's enthusiasm for stockpiling increased after the rebound, but the compound fertilizer market was tepid [3]. - The inventory decreased this period, mainly due to the opening of port inspections, which relieved the inventory pressure in the factories [3]. Crude Oil - After the US military's intervention in attacking Iranian nuclear facilities, the market was concerned about Iran's retaliatory actions, but the retaliatory actions were weak, and Israel and Iran reached a cease - fire agreement, sharply cooling down the geopolitical risks in the Middle East [4][6]. - Crude oil has entered the seasonal travel peak season, the US crude oil inventory has continued to decline to a low level, and OPEC + production increases are less than expected, but the market is currently focused on geopolitical risks in the Middle East [6]. - It is recommended to operate cautiously and buy put options on crude oil with a light position [6]. Futures Market Overview - As of the close on June 25, domestic futures main contracts showed mixed trends. Some contracts such as red dates and urea rose by more than 2%, while SC crude oil fell by more than 8% [8]. - The major contracts of stock index futures generally rose, while the major contracts of treasury bond futures showed different trends [8]. Capital Flow - As of 15:16, the main contracts of domestic futures had capital inflows in contracts such as CSI 1000 2509, and outflows in contracts such as Shanghai copper 2507 [10]. Core Views (Commodity - Specific) Copper - Shanghai copper opened low and moved high, showing a strong oscillation during the day. The cease - fire between Israel and Iran eased geopolitical conflicts, but there was still uncertainty [12]. - On the supply side, the copper supply was still increasing, and the tight - supply expectation in the copper - smelting end was only reflected in the data. On the inventory side, the global copper inventory decreased, but the US copper inventory continued to accumulate rapidly [12]. - On the demand side, the terminal market was relatively weak, and the downstream mainly purchased at low prices and for rigid needs. The copper price is expected to be volatile and slightly stronger, but the spot market is weak [12]. Lithium Carbonate - Lithium carbonate opened high and moved low, showing a slightly strong oscillation. The average price of battery - grade and industrial - grade lithium carbonate increased [14]. - In May 2025, the import volume of lithium carbonate decreased, but it was still at a relatively high level. The downstream was still waiting and watching, and the inventory continued to accumulate. The upward space is limited, and the pattern of oscillation and short - bias remains unchanged [14]. Asphalt - The asphalt start - up rate decreased, and the June production plan increased. The downstream start - up rates showed mixed trends, and the inventory ratio continued to decline [15]. - The geopolitical risks in the Middle East have cooled down, and the asphalt price has fallen sharply with crude oil. It is recommended to operate cautiously and go long on the 09 - 12 spread at low prices [15]. PP - The downstream start - up rate of PP decreased, and the enterprise start - up rate also declined. The inventory pressure was still large, and it is expected to be in a low - level oscillation pattern [17]. Plastic - The plastic start - up rate increased, but the downstream start - up rate decreased. The inventory pressure was still large, and it is expected to be in a low - level oscillation pattern [18]. PVC - The PVC start - up rate decreased, and the downstream start - up rate continued to decline slightly. The export was restricted, and the inventory pressure was still large. It is expected to be in a low - level oscillation pattern [20]. Coking Coal - Coking coal opened low and moved low, and then rebounded at the end of the session. The supply pressure was relieved, but the demand also weakened. The futures price is expected to stimulate downstream purchases, but the rebound amplitude may slow down [21]. Rebar - The rebar price fell slightly. The supply was still at a relatively high level, the cost of raw materials was under pressure, the demand was weak in the off - season, and the inventory accumulation pressure was increasing. It is expected to maintain a weak oscillation pattern [23]. Hot - Rolled Coil - The hot - rolled coil price showed a slight decline. The supply pressure was still there, the raw material cost support was limited, the terminal demand was weak, and the inventory was slowly rising. It is expected to continue the weak oscillation trend [25].