银河期货棉花、棉纱日报-20250625

Group 1: Report General Information - Report Title: Cotton and Cotton Yarn Daily Report [2] - Report Date: June 25, 2024 [2] - Researcher: Liu Qiannan [2] Group 2: Market Information Futures Market - CF01 closed at 13,625 with a gain of 40, volume of 47,727 (down 5,162), and open interest of 168,678 (up 5,130) [3] - CF05 closed at 13,605 with a gain of 50, volume of 943 (up 265), and open interest of 5,983 (up 264) [3] - CF09 closed at 13,645 with a gain of 35, volume of 234,985 (down 9,877), and open interest of 560,112 (up 18,170) [3] - CY01 closed at 19,990 with a gain of 120, volume of 13 (up 9), and open interest of 46 (up 7) [3] - CY05 closed at 20,055 with a gain of 1,505, volume of 1 (up 1), and open interest of 1 (up 1) [3] - CY09 closed at 19,995 with a gain of 90, volume of 9,169 (up 1,363), and open interest of 21,920 (up 576) [3] Spot Market - CCIndex3128B was at 14,938 yuan/ton, up 44 [3] - Cot A was at 78.40 cents/pound, up 0.85 [3] - FC Index:M: to - port price was at 76.55, up 0.73 [3] - CY IndexC32S was at 20,300, down 770 [3] - FCY IndexC33S was at 21,928, up 59 [3] - Indian S - 6 was at 54,000, unchanged [3] - Polyester staple fiber was at 7,450, up 70 [3] - Pure polyester yarn T32S was at 11,200, down 50 [3] - Viscose staple fiber was at 12,600, unchanged [3] - Viscose yarn R30S was at 17,250, unchanged [3] Spreads - Cotton inter - month spreads: 1 - 5 spread was 20 (down 10), 5 - 9 spread was - 40 (up 15), 9 - 1 spread was 20 (down 5) [3] - Cotton yarn inter - month spreads: 1 - 5 spread was - 65 (down 1,385), 5 - 9 spread was 60 (up 1,415), 9 - 1 spread was 5 (down 30) [3] - Cross - variety spreads: CY01 - CF01 spread was 6,365 (up 80), CY05 - CF05 spread was 6,450 (up 1,455), CY09 - CF09 spread was 6,350 (up 55) [3] - Domestic - foreign spreads: 1% tariff domestic - foreign cotton spread was 1,050 (down 93), domestic - foreign cotton yarn spread was - 1,628 (down 829) [3] Group 3: Market News and Views Cotton Market News - As of June 16, 2025, the cotton planting area in India for the 2025/26 season was 3.125 million hectares, 214,000 hectares higher than the same period last year [6] - As of the week ending June 22, 2025, India's weekly cotton market volume was 174,000 tons, a 501% year - on - year increase; the cumulative market volume for the 2024/25 season was 4.9075 million tons, a 5% year - on - year decrease [6] - As of June 23, 2025, the total cotton inventory in Zhangjiagang Free Trade Zone was 40,100 tons, a 0.21% year - on - year decrease [7] Trading Logic - Uncertainties in Sino - US trade relations and China's trade policies with other countries bring uncertainties to cotton prices; if the US eases its attitude towards China, it could be positive for cotton prices [8] - With China's current low commercial cotton inventory, if the destocking speed remains the same, the market may price in the expected tight supply before the new cotton harvest, leading to a slightly bullish and volatile cotton market [8] Trading Strategies - Unilateral: US cotton is expected to be slightly bullish and volatile, and Zhengzhou cotton is expected to be slightly bullish in the short - term [9] - Arbitrage: Wait and see [9] - Options: Wait and see [9] Cotton Yarn Industry News - After the recent rise in cotton prices, the pure cotton yarn market remained quiet with light trading and stable prices due to poor downstream orders and low procurement enthusiasm [9] - The overall market for all - cotton grey fabrics remained sluggish, with no improvement in orders and most weavers pessimistic about the future; some expected inventory to increase in July [9] Group 4: Options Option Contracts - On June 25, 2025, CF509C13400.CZC closed at 340, up 49.8%, with an implied volatility of 9.3% [11] - CF509P12600.CZC closed at 18, down 30.8%, with an implied volatility of 13.6% [11] - CF509P12200.CZC closed at 13, down 13.3%, with an implied volatility of 16.8% [11] Volatility - The 120 - day HV of cotton was 10.3355, slightly lower than the previous day [11] Option Strategy - The PCR of the main Zhengzhou cotton contract's open interest was 0.9324, and the PCR of trading volume was 0.5796, with an increase in both call and put trading volumes [12] - Option strategy: Wait and see [13] Group 5: Related Attachments - Figures include 1% tariff domestic - foreign cotton price spread, cotton January basis, cotton May basis, cotton September basis, CY05 - CF05 spread, CY01 - CF01 spread, CF9 - 1 spread, and CF5 - 9 spread [14][21][26]