银河期货苹果日报-20250625

Report Summary 1. Report Industry Investment Rating No information provided in the report. 2. Core View of the Report - Due to the low inventory of apples this season, it is expected to effectively support the opening price of early - maturing apples such as Gala. The windy and hot weather in April had a negative impact on fruit setting in some areas of Shaanxi, and it is predicted that the fruit - setting performance of apples in Shaanxi this year is slightly poor. Currently, the price of the October futures contract has fallen to the current level, and it is expected that the apple futures price will mostly maintain a slightly stronger oscillating trend [8]. 3. Summary by Relevant Catalogs Market Information - Spot Prices: The index of Wangxingtang is 112.24, up 0.05; the average wholesale price of 6 kinds of fruits is 7.48, up 0.08. The prices of apples in various regions such as Qixia, Luochuan, Penglai, and Yiyuan remained stable [3]. - Futures Prices: AP01 closed at 7586, up 16; AP05 closed at 7703, down 2; AP10 closed at 7690, up 16. The spreads between different contracts also changed, for example, AP01 - AP05 increased by 18, and AP05 - AP10 decreased by 18 [3]. - Basis: The basis of Qixia first - and second - grade 80 apples against AP01 decreased by 16, and against AP10 decreased by 16, while against AP05 increased by 2 [3]. Market News and Views - Inventory: As of June 18, 2025, the cold - storage inventory of apples in the main producing areas of China was 1.1649 million tons, a decrease of 109,700 tons from the previous week. The shipment speed was basically the same as last week but slower than the same period last year [4]. - Market Transaction: Yesterday, the mainstream transaction price of apples in the origin was stable, the cold - storage transaction was average, and the purchasing enthusiasm of merchants was not high. Affected by seasonal fruits, the shipment speed was slow, and the price in individual markets declined slightly. The profit of storage merchants of Qixia 80 first - and second - grade apples in the 2024 - 2025 production season was 0.9 yuan per catty, an increase of 0.2 yuan per catty from last week [7]. - Spot Price in Shandong: The mainstream price of apples in Qixia, Shandong was stable. The prices of different grades and varieties of apples were given, and the purchasing of merchants was cautious with low trading volume [7]. - Trading Logic: Low inventory supports the opening price of early - maturing apples, poor fruit - setting in Shaanxi, and the futures price is expected to oscillate slightly stronger [8]. - Trading Strategy: Adopt a long - biased strategy on dips for unilateral trading; suggest waiting and seeing for arbitrage and options trading [9]. Relevant Attachments - The report includes multiple charts such as the price of Qixia first - and second - grade paper - bag 80 apples, the price of Luochuan semi - commercial paper - bag 70 apples, the basis of AP contracts, the spread between different AP contracts, the arrival volume of apples in some markets, the price of 6 kinds of fruits, the national cold - storage apple inventory, and the national cold - storage apple shipment volume, with data sources including Galaxy Futures, Steel Union, and Wind Information [13][15][21][27].