银河期货鸡蛋日报-20250625

Group 1: Report Industry Investment Rating - No relevant content provided Group 2: Core Viewpoints of the Report - The near - month 07 contract of eggs is expected to maintain a weak performance due to the arrival of the off - season of egg consumption after May, but the downward space is limited. The far - month contracts may rise if the future chicken culling volume increases and improves the egg supply, especially the 8 and 9 - month contracts which are peak - season contracts. However, if the supply side is not significantly improved, the upward space is relatively limited [9]. Group 3: Summary by Relevant Catalogs 3.1 Futures Market - Futures Prices and Spreads: JD01 closed at 3628, up 19 from the previous day; JD05 closed at 3398, up 1; JD09 closed at 3658, up 16. The 01 - 05 spread was 230, up 18; the 05 - 09 spread was - 260, down 15; the 09 - 01 spread was 30, down 3 [3]. - Ratio of Egg to Feed: The 01 egg/corn ratio was 1.60, up 0.01; the 01 egg/bean粕 ratio was 1.20, up 0.02. Similar upward trends were seen in other contracts [3]. 3.2 Spot Market - Egg Prices: The average price in the main production areas was 2.81 yuan/jin, down 0.06 yuan/jin from the previous day, and the average price in the main sales areas was 2.97 yuan/jin, down 0.02 yuan/jin. Most mainstream prices across the country declined [3][6]. - Culled Chicken Prices: The average price of culled chickens in the main production areas was 4.6 yuan/jin, up 0.05 yuan/jin from the previous day [3][9]. 3.3 Fundamental Information - Inventory of Laying Hens: In May, the national inventory of laying hens was 1.334 billion, an increase of 0.11 billion from the previous month and a year - on - year increase of 7.2%. The estimated inventory from June to September 2025 is 1.339 billion, 1.347 billion, 1.351 billion, and 1.350 billion respectively [7]. - Chick Hatchlings: In May, the monthly hatchling volume of sample enterprises was 46.985 million, a 4% decrease from the previous month and a 1% increase year - on - year [7]. - Culled Chicken Volume and Age: From June 19 - 20, the national culled chicken volume was 19.68 million, a 4% decrease from the previous week, and the average culling age was 509 days, a 3 - day decrease from the previous week [7]. - Egg Sales Volume: As of the week of June 19, the egg sales volume in the main sales areas was 7527 tons, an 8% decrease from the previous week [8]. - Inventory Days: As of the week of June 19, the average inventory days in the production and circulation links were 0.92 days and 1.04 days respectively, with decreases of 0.11 days and 0.01 days from the previous week [8]. - Profit: As of June 19, the weekly average profit per jin of eggs was - 0.55 yuan/jin, a decrease of 0.08 yuan/jin from the previous week, and on June 20, the expected profit of laying hen farming was 14.6 yuan/feather, a decrease of 0.09 yuan/jin from the previous week [8]. 3.4 Trading Logic - Near - month contracts are expected to be weak, and far - month contracts may rise if the supply side improves, but the upward space is limited if the supply is not significantly improved [9]. 3.5 Trading Strategies - Single - side: Consider building long positions in the far - month 8 and 9 - month contracts when the rainy season is about to end in mid - to - late June and the safety margin is high [10]. - Arbitrage: Wait and see [10]. - Options: Wait and see [10].