金融市场流动性与监管动态周报：ETF转为净流入、美联储维持利率不变-20250625

Group 1 - The report indicates a shift in the secondary market, with tracked funds turning to net inflow, particularly in ETFs with a net inflow of 136.5 billion yuan, while financing funds showed a net outflow of 35.0 billion yuan [2][4][35] - The Federal Reserve maintained its interest rate and continues to expect two rate cuts within the year, despite increasing internal divisions regarding economic forecasts [4][15][18] - Economic forecasts have been adjusted, with the unemployment rate and inflation expectations raised, while GDP growth expectations have been lowered, indicating potential stagflation risks due to tariff policies [4][10][11] Group 2 - The liquidity index for A-shares shows an increase in public fund issuance to 190.9 billion yuan, while the net buy of financing funds decreased to -34.99 billion yuan [3][35] - The demand side reflects a decrease in lock-up releases to 449.44 billion yuan and a drop in IPO financing to 6.4 billion yuan, indicating a contraction in capital demand [3][40] - The market sentiment has shown a decrease in trading activity, with the risk premium on equities rising, suggesting a cautious outlook among investors [45][47] Group 3 - The report highlights a preference for sectors such as pharmaceuticals, non-bank financials, and defense, which have seen significant net inflows from various funds [4][20] - The trading activity in the market has been characterized by a decline in turnover rates across various style indices and major industry sectors, indicating a potential slowdown in market engagement [50][51] - The overall market performance reflects a mixed sentiment, with the Nasdaq index slightly up by 0.2% while the S&P 500 index fell by 0.2%, suggesting volatility in investor confidence [47]