冲击的“脉络“系列之二：封锁“霍尔木兹”，不可信的承诺？

Group 1: Feasibility of Blocking the Strait of Hormuz - Iran's threat to block the Strait of Hormuz has a low likelihood due to economic constraints and pressure from Gulf countries[3] - The market's perception of the likelihood of Iran blocking the Strait has decreased from 53% to 17% following the ceasefire announcement on June 24[3] - Oil prices have returned to levels seen before the conflict, indicating reduced market concern over the blockade[3] Group 2: Impact of Blockade Threat on Oil Prices - Historical data shows that Iran's blockade threats typically result in short-term price increases, averaging 1.9% on the day of the threat and 3.4% over ten days[4] - In extreme scenarios, if the Strait were completely blocked, oil prices could rise to over $130 per barrel due to significant supply disruptions[4] - Approximately 20% of global oil consumption is transported through the Strait, highlighting the potential impact of a blockade on global supply[4] Group 3: Secondary Effects of Oil Price Increases - Rising oil prices could lead to increased inflationary pressures, with a $10 per barrel increase potentially raising the U.S. CPI by 0.2 percentage points[5] - Higher oil prices may push U.S. Treasury yields upward, benefiting currencies of energy self-sufficient countries like the U.S. and Canada[5] - The relationship between oil price increases and gold prices remains ambiguous, as rising oil prices can elevate inflation expectations while also increasing nominal interest rates[5]