南华期货硅产业链企业风险管理日报-20250625

Report Overview - The report is the "Silicon Industry Chain Enterprise Risk Management Daily Report" by Nanhua Futures, dated June 25, 2025, written by Xia Yingying and Yu Weihang [1] Industry Investment Rating - Not provided in the report Core Views - Industrial silicon is in the industrial cycle of eliminating backward production capacity, with continuous supply surplus pressure. It is necessary to wait for inventory to be digested to a healthy level [3] - Polysilicon is in a situation of strong supply and weak demand. If there are production capacity elimination plans or industrial integration agreements in the future, it is expected to improve the industry situation [3] Summary by Relevant Catalogs Industrial Silicon and Polysilicon Futures Price Range - Industrial silicon's strong pressure level is 7,600 yuan/ton, with a current volatility of 24.0%, a daily decline of 1.00%, and a historical percentile of current volatility (3 years) of 72.2% [2] - Polysilicon's strong pressure level is 33,000 yuan/ton, with a current volatility of 24.26%, a daily decline of 0.30%, and a historical percentile of current volatility (3 years) of 53.38% [2] Industrial Silicon and Polysilicon Risk Management Strategy Recommendations - Inventory Management: For high product inventory and inventory impairment risk, short futures (30% hedging ratio) and sell call options (70% hedging ratio), and buy out - of - the - money put options [2] - Procurement Management: For future production plans and raw material price increase risks, buy long - term futures contracts according to production plans, sell put options, and buy out - of - the - money call options [2] Core Logic - Industrial Silicon: Supply surplus pressure persists. Supply may increase with the approaching of the wet season, and demand from different industries varies. It is necessary to wait for inventory digestion [3] - Polysilicon: It is in a situation of strong supply and weak demand. If there are production capacity elimination or integration, the industry situation may improve [3] 利多解读 (Positive Interpretations) - Industrial Silicon: Cost reduction space is limited in the short - term, profit valuation is low, and there is a high probability of supply disturbances; downstream enterprises' profits exist, and production enthusiasm is promoted by the approaching wet season [7] - Polysilicon: There may be production capacity integration and elimination plans; downstream enterprises recognize and buy polysilicon on the futures side; the phenomenon of high open interest in near - month contracts and few warehouse receipts may cause market fluctuations [7] 利空解读 (Negative Interpretations) - Industrial Silicon: The release of production capacity in the southwest region is expected to be realized as the wet season approaches; the rumor of joint production cuts by downstream polysilicon enterprises may become a reality [7] - Polysilicon: The failure of enterprise integration and elimination, and enterprises maintain the status quo of production; raw material prices are low and production profit increases, leading to increased production [5][8] Industrial Silicon Futures Data - Prices: The closing price of the industrial silicon futures main contract is 7,555 yuan/ton, with a daily increase of 70 yuan and a daily increase rate of 0.94% [10] - Volume and Open Interest: The trading volume is 504,119 lots, a decrease of 17.69% compared with the previous period; the open interest is 306,644 lots, an increase of 4.50% compared with the previous period [10] Industrial Silicon Spot Data - Prices of 553 and 421 silicon in different regions are mostly stable, with the price of Sichuan 421 silicon decreasing by 100 yuan/ton, a decline of 1.03% [16] - The basis of East China 553 and 421 silicon has decreased, with a decline of 8.9% and 5.08% respectively [16] Polysilicon Futures Data - Prices: The closing price of the polysilicon futures main contract is 30,625 yuan/ton, a daily decrease of 460 yuan and a daily decrease rate of 1.48% [24] - Volume and Open Interest: The trading volume is 146,141 lots, a decrease of 15.02% compared with the previous period; the open interest is 80,107 lots, an increase of 10.82% compared with the previous period [24] Polysilicon Spot Data - The prices of various types of polysilicon are stable, with no daily change [37] Silicon Wafer Data - The prices of N - type silicon wafers mostly show a downward trend, with the N - type silicon wafer price index decreasing by 0.02 yuan/piece, a decline of 0.02 [38] Warehouse Receipt Data - The total industrial silicon warehouse receipts are 53,263 lots, a decrease of 307 lots compared with the previous period, a decline of 3.52% [22] - The total polysilicon warehouse receipts are 2,600 lots, with no change compared with the previous period [40]