Group 1: Investment Rating - There is no information about the industry investment rating in the report. Group 2: Core Views - In Q3, both lithium ore and lithium salt inventories face significant pressure, and the de - stocking process is slow. The main market contradiction is that the pressure of lithium salt capacity clearance is gradually spreading to the upstream ore end. A decline in ore prices may lead to a further drop in lithium salt prices, potentially resulting in a spiral - like cycle of price decline. The fundamentals in Q3 remain in an oversupply situation, while the short - term technical aspects may experience a phased rebound. Currently, a weak - oscillating outlook is maintained [3]. - Positive factors include an increasing probability of supply - side disruptions as lithium ore and lithium salt prices fall, potential market confidence boost from the "Golden September and Silver October" peak season, and the market trading of the contradiction between high open interest and low warrant numbers, which could lift futures prices [4]. - Negative factors involve a large future production capacity of lithium ore, high inventories suppressing ore prices, which in turn could drag down the cost of lithium carbonate; high inventories of both lithium ore and lithium salt and a continued inventory accumulation trend; and the delay of capacity clearance due to cost reduction in some high - cost technical routes caused by industrial technological upgrades [5]. Group 3: Futures Price and Strategy - The price of the lithium carbonate futures main contract is predicted to oscillate between 59,000 - 62,000 yuan/ton, with a current 20 - day rolling volatility of 20.8% and a historical percentile (3 - year) of 23.9% [2]. - For inventory management, when product inventory is high and there is a risk of inventory impairment, 70% of the inventory can be hedged by short - selling lithium carbonate futures (LC2509), 30% by selling call options, and buying out - of - the - money put options [2]. - For procurement management, when there are future procurement plans and concerns about raw material price increases, lithium carbonate forward contracts can be bought according to the procurement plan to lock in procurement costs, and put options can be sold while buying out - of - the - money call options [2]. Group 4: Futures Market Data - The closing price of the lithium carbonate futures main contract is 60,880 yuan/ton, up 180 yuan (0.30%) from the previous day. The trading volume is 366,743 lots, down 315,004 lots (- 46.21%), and the open interest is 350,406 lots, up 6,842 lots (1.99%) [8]. - Regarding the lithium carbonate monthly spreads, LC07 - 08 is 100 yuan/ton, down 20 yuan (- 16.67%); LC08 - 11 is 340 yuan/ton, down 60 yuan (- 15.00%); LC09 - 11 is 140 yuan/ton, down 60 yuan (- 30%); LC11 - 12 is - 340 yuan/ton, down 20 yuan (6%) [14]. Group 5: Lithium Ore Price - The daily average quotes of lithium ore show different prices and changes for different months from June 2025 to July 2026 [17]. - The latest average prices of lithium mica with different grades (Li2O: 2 - 2.5%, 3 - 4%, 5 - 5.5%) are 1,210 yuan/ton, 2,205 yuan/ton, and 4,505 yuan/ton respectively, with daily increases of 20 yuan/ton (1.68%), 30 yuan/ton (1.38%), and 45 yuan/ton (1.01%). For lithium spodumene with Li2O: 6% from different sources, the prices and changes vary. Phospho - lithium - aluminum stone (Li2O: 6 - 7%) has an average price of 4,875 yuan/ton, down 350 yuan/ton (- 6.70%). The USD/CNY exchange rate is 7.1717, unchanged [19]. Group 6: Lithium Carbonate/Hydroxide Price - The latest average prices of industrial - grade lithium carbonate, battery - grade lithium carbonate, industrial - grade lithium hydroxide, battery - grade lithium hydroxide (micropowder), battery - grade lithium hydroxide (CIF China, Japan, and South Korea), and battery - grade lithium hydroxide CIF China, Japan, and South Korea (fastmarkets) are 58,600 yuan/ton, 60,200 yuan/ton, 52,370 yuan/ton, 63,420 yuan/ton, 8.13 USD/kg, and 8.25 USD/kg respectively, with corresponding daily changes and percentage changes [22]. - The electric - carbon minus industrial - carbon spread is 1,600 yuan/ton, unchanged; the electric - hydrogen minus electric - carbon spread is 3,220 yuan/ton, down 600 yuan/ton (- 15.71%); the spread between battery - grade lithium hydroxide CIF Japan and South Korea and the domestic price is - 3.92 yuan/ton, up 166.44 yuan/ton (- 97.70%) [25]. Group 7: Downstream Product Price - The latest average prices of downstream products such as lithium iron phosphate (power - type, low - end energy - storage type, mid - to - high - end energy - storage type), lithium manganese iron phosphate, ternary materials (523, 622, 811), lithium hexafluorophosphate, and electrolytes (for different uses) and their daily changes and percentage changes are provided [35][36]. Group 8: Lithium Carbonate Warrant - The total number of lithium carbonate warrants is 22,370, down 5 from the previous day. Warrant numbers at different warehouses and sub - warehouses are also provided, with most remaining unchanged [38].
南华期货碳酸锂企业风险管理日报-20250625
Nan Hua Qi Huo·2025-06-25 13:20