聚酯产业风险管理日报：地缘缓和，回吐风险溢价-20250625

Report Information - Report Title: Polyester Industry Risk Management Daily Report: Geopolitical Tensions Ease, Risk Premiums Fade [1] - Date: June 25, 2025 [1] - Analysts: Dai Yifan (Investment Consulting License No.: Z0015428), Zhou Jiawei (Futures Practice License No.: F03133676) [1] - Investment Advisory Business Qualification: China Securities Regulatory Commission License [2011] No. 1290 [1] Industry Investment Rating - Not provided in the report Core Viewpoints - The direct impact of the Israel-Iran conflict on ethylene glycol was mainly reflected in the significant fluctuations in crude oil prices on the cost side and disturbances on the supply side. Currently, the influence of geopolitics is gradually fading, and the price of ethylene glycol is now mainly driven by fundamentals [3] Summary by Relevant Catalogs Polyester Price Range Forecast - The price range forecast for ethylene glycol in the next month is 4000 - 4600 yuan, with a current 20 - day rolling volatility of 20.82% and a historical percentile of 52.8% over the past 3 years. For PX, it is 6400 - 7300 yuan, with a volatility of 31.00% and a historical percentile of 87.6%. For PTA, it is 4400 - 5300 yuan, with a volatility of 29.19% and a historical percentile of 84.7%. For bottle chips, it is 5700 - 6400 yuan, with a volatility of 22.78% and a historical percentile of 71.3% [2] Polyester Hedging Strategy - Inventory Management: When the finished - product inventory is high and there are concerns about a decline in ethylene glycol prices, companies with long positions can short ethylene glycol futures (EG2509) at an entry range of 4400 - 4500 yuan with a hedging ratio of 25% to lock in profits and compensate for production costs. They can also buy put options (EG2509P4200) at a range of 20 - 40 yuan and sell call options (EG2509C4500) at a range of 40 - 60 yuan with a hedging ratio of 50% to prevent large price drops and reduce capital costs [2] - Procurement Management: When the regular procurement inventory is low and companies want to purchase based on orders, those with short positions can buy ethylene glycol futures (EG2509) at an entry range of 4200 - 4250 yuan with a hedging ratio of 50% to lock in procurement costs in advance. They can also sell put options (EG2509P4150) at a range of 50 - 80 yuan with a hedging ratio of 75% to collect premiums and reduce procurement costs, and lock in the purchase price of spot ethylene glycol if prices fall [2] Core Contradictions - The impact of the Israel - Iran conflict on ethylene glycol was mainly on the cost side (crude oil price fluctuations) and the supply side. Now, the influence of geopolitics is waning, and the price is back to being fundamentally driven [3] 利多解读 - The easing of the Israel - Iran conflict led to a sharp rise in crude oil prices, which in turn pushed up the polyester sector. The cost side showed an increase in absolute prices following the rise in crude oil prices, and coal - based profits are expected to expand. However, due to factors such as device operating conditions, the additional supply increase is expected to be limited. The US requirement for export licenses for ethane to China poses a long - term risk to the raw material supply of ethane - to - ethylene glycol plants, but it is expected to have limited impact on the supply side before August [3] 利空解读 - Bottle chip factories announced production cut plans, expected to affect a total capacity of 230 - 300 million tons, weakening the demand for EG. With the easing of the situation, crude oil prices quickly fell, mainly affecting coal - based ethylene glycol production. Although coal - based profits have been compressed, they remain at a good level, mainly resulting in a downward shift in the absolute price range. Iran's ethylene glycol production is about 190 million tons, with about half exported to China. The actual monthly supply to the Chinese market is about 80,000 tons, accounting for about 10% of China's imports. The previous expectation of reduced imports is now less likely, and the main impact is expected to be on August imports. Future attention should be paid to the recovery of local Iranian plants and port shipments [4][6] Polyester Daily Data - The report provides price, price difference, warehouse receipt, processing fee, and production and sales rate data for various polyester - related products on June 25, 24, and 18, 2025, as well as their daily and weekly changes [7][8]