跳出震荡看周期

Report Summary 1. Investment Rating No investment rating for the industry is provided in the report. 2. Core Views - Since 2024, the significant decline in interest rates to historical lows is difficult to explain by nominal GDP changes. In the long - term, Chinese interest rates move within a non - parallel range, with the "upper limit" determined by the entity's investment return rate and the "lower limit" by the scale of "rigid financing" demand. The key force behind the current interest rate decline is the opening of the lower limit, i.e., the rapid clearing of financing demand [2]. - After a major bull market in the bond market in the previous year, it often enters an oscillatory transition phase in the next year. In 2025, the interest rate has shifted from a unilateral bull market to range - bound oscillations, as the financing cycle turns to expansion while the economic cycle lags behind and declines, and the interest rate digests the combined forces through sideways movement [2]. - High - frequency signals indicate a relatively high "winning rate" for the bond market. Market trading sentiment is not extreme, fundamental high - frequency indicators and interest rates are mutually verified, and both the volatility and trend terms in the timing model have returned to the long side [2]. - The market is mainly concerned about the odds constraint. However, the leading - lagging relationship between the long - end and short - end may have changed, and the term spread is not a reasonable basis for judging market space [2]. - Although interest rates are in a downward channel, the three - year cyclical adjustment pattern still exists. In 2025, there is a seasonal pattern of cyclical rebound in financing, which is the main driving force for the bond market correction. If viewed from the perspective of broad social financing, the bond market correction in the first quarter conforms to the characteristics of cyclical downward pressure release. If there is no increase in new government bond quotas or spontaneous stabilization of corporate leverage, broad social financing may peak in the second quarter, and interest rates may start a new round of decline [3]. 3. Summary by Related Content Interest Rate Movement and Driving Factors - Long - term, Chinese interest rates show a "triangular convergence" trend, with the upper limit moving down and the lower limit remaining stable. The current interest rate decline is due to the opening of the lower limit, resulting in a deviation between interest rate trends and many economic indicators while strengthening the relationship with financing growth [2]. Market Oscillation and Macro - background - After a major bull market in the bond market in the previous year, it often enters an oscillatory phase in the next year. In 2025, the interest rate shift from a unilateral bull market to range - bound oscillations is due to the expansion of the financing cycle and the lagging decline of the economic cycle [2]. High - frequency Signal Analysis - Market trading sentiment is at a neutral - low position, with room for further fermentation; fundamental high - frequency indicators and interest rates are mutually verified; both the volatility and trend terms in the timing model have returned to the long side, indicating a relatively high "winning rate" for the bond market [2]. Market Odds Constraint - The market is worried about the odds constraint, mainly due to the extremely flat yield curve. However, the leading - lagging relationship between the long - end and short - end has changed, such as the relative "insensitivity" of capital costs, the long - end amplitude becoming larger than the short - end, and the long - end trading volume rising, so the term spread is not a reasonable basis for judging market space [2]. Cyclical Adjustment of Interest Rates - Despite the downward trend in interest rates, the three - year cyclical adjustment pattern remains. In 2025, there is a seasonal cyclical rebound in financing, which is the main cause of the bond market correction. From the perspective of broad social financing, the bond market correction in the first quarter conforms to cyclical downward pressure release. If there are no special circumstances, broad social financing may peak in the second quarter, and interest rates may decline again [3]. Economic Indicator Analysis - Ten interest rate synchronization indicators are provided, including enterprise medium - and long - term loan balance growth rate, building materials composite index, etc., with their latest values, previous values, qualitative judgments, and relationships with interest rates [49]. Social Financing and Interest Rate Relationship - The relationship between social financing and interest rates is analyzed. If not considering new government bond quotas or spontaneous stabilization of corporate leverage, broad social financing may peak in the second quarter, and interest rates may start a new round of decline [3]. Policy - related Financial Tools - A comparison is made between the 2022 policy - based development financial tools and the 2025 new policy - based financial tools in terms of announcement time, policy goals, funding scale, operating entities, main investment fields, and project subjects [126].