Changjiang Securities·2025-06-25 13:20Investment Rating - The industry investment rating is "Positive" and maintained [11] Core Viewpoints - The real estate sector continues to face downward pressure, with a decline in cement shipments and falling glass prices. The report recommends focusing on domestic substitution chains and African chains, with leading companies in the existing market being the main focus for the year [2][5][8] Summary by Sections Market Overview - From January to May 2025, the national sales of commercial housing decreased by 3.8% in value and 2.9% in area year-on-year. In May, the sales value and area fell by 6.0% and 3.3% respectively, with the decline in sales area aligning with the trends of the top 100 real estate companies [5][6] Cement Industry - The new construction area from January to May 2025 decreased by 22.8%, with a 19.3% decline in May. Cement production fell by 4.0% from January to May and by 8.1% in May. The average cement shipment rate in mid-June was 44%, down 1.6 percentage points month-on-month and 4.2 percentage points year-on-year [6][7][24] Glass Industry - The domestic float glass market continues to show weak price adjustments, with the average price falling to 69.99 yuan per weight box, down 1.16 yuan week-on-week and 18.37 yuan year-on-year. The inventory of glass in key monitored provinces increased to 60.52 million weight boxes, up 0.12% [37][34] Special Fiberglass - The demand for AI computing is shifting towards large-scale inference, leading companies to prefer customized ASIC chips for cost and energy efficiency. This trend is expected to boost the value of upstream suppliers, with special fiberglass being a key component. Zhongcai Technology is positioned to benefit significantly as a core supplier [6][8] Recommendations - The report recommends focusing on domestic substitution companies such as Zhongcai Technology, Maijia Xincai, and Punaite Co., as well as African chain leader Keda Manufacturing. The existing market is expected to see demand recovery and structural optimization, particularly in the renovation of residential and public spaces [8][5][6]