Guoxin Securities·2025-06-25 13:19Investment Rating - The report maintains an "Outperform" rating for the insurance industry [5][6]. Core Insights - The insurance industry is experiencing a structural shift with a focus on savings-type insurance products, which are attracting significant inflows due to higher preset interest rates. This has led to an increase in the market share of traditional life insurance, which is expected to account for 56% of total premium income by the end of 2024, up three percentage points from 2019 [1][13]. - Regulatory guidance is pushing insurance companies to lower preset interest rates for new products, transitioning from high guaranteed return products to lower guaranteed and floating return dividend insurance [1][24]. - The asset side of insurance companies is under pressure due to low long-term interest rates and declining returns on fixed-income assets. Companies are increasing their allocation to equity investments to stabilize returns and ensure long-term cash flow [3][42]. Summary by Sections Liability Side - Regulatory measures have led to a continuous reduction in preset interest rates for insurance products, dynamically lowering the risk of interest spread losses. The average liability cost is projected to decrease from 2.56% in 2024 to 2.28% by 2027 [2][32]. - The preset interest rates for ordinary life insurance and dividend insurance are expected to be adjusted to 2.0% and 1.75%, respectively, reflecting a downward trend [2][31]. Asset Side - Insurance companies are focusing on high-dividend sectors and increasing their allocation to equity assets to enhance the stability of investment returns. The comprehensive investment return for the life insurance sector is projected to be 4.06% in 2025, gradually declining to 3.92% by 2027 [3][39]. - The report highlights a significant shift in asset allocation strategies, with a growing emphasis on equity investments to counteract the challenges posed by low interest rates and a lack of high-quality non-standard assets [3][42]. Investment Recommendations - The report suggests that the narrowing of interest spread risks and stable investment returns from high-dividend assets will catalyze improvements in the fundamentals of listed insurance companies. It recommends focusing on companies with a high proportion of life insurance business and relatively flexible asset sides, such as China Life and New China Life, as well as strong sales foundations like Ping An and China Pacific Insurance [4][5].