黑色产业数据每日监测-20250625

Group 1: Report Industry Investment Rating - No relevant content Group 2: Core View of the Report - The fundamentals of coking coal and coke have improved, but the improvement is limited. Coal mines still have the expectation of resuming production. In the short term, prices are still in a volatile range, and a bearish view is maintained in the medium to long term [1] Group 3: Summary by Related Catalogs Market Overview - Today, black commodity futures generally stabilized with mixed performance. Rebar closed at 2,976 yuan/ton, down 0.33%; hot-rolled coil closed at 3,098 yuan/ton, down 0.26%; iron ore closed at 702.5 yuan/ton; both coking coal and coke closed higher [1] Market Analysis - Last week, steel production increased while inventory decreased. The apparent demand for five major steel products rose by 160,800 tons to 8.8418 million tons. Due to continuous concessions from the raw material side, the profitability rate of 247 steel mills rebounded to 59.31% week-on-week. The driving force for production cuts was limited. The daily average pig iron output from blast furnaces ended a five - week decline, increasing by 5,700 tons to 2.4218 million tons week-on-week, and was 22,400 tons higher than the same period last year. The rigid demand for coke was still supported [1] - Affected by environmental protection and maintenance, the capacity utilization rate of independent coking enterprises declined. Coke inventory decreased by more than 8% to 1.1558 million tons week-on-week, and the real - world contradiction eased marginally. However, the current supply side of coke is still relatively loose. Some steel mills in Hebei and Tianjin proposed a fourth - round price cut for coke, which was implemented at 0:00 on June 23, 2025. The spot market is still under pressure. Coking enterprises' profits have reached the break - even point, and there is no intention to cut production for now. Most expect the coke market to stabilize in the future [1] - After a long - term price decline in coking coal, the downstream procurement enthusiasm has slightly increased. The unsuccessful auction rate of coking coal in online auctions last week significantly decreased, reaching a low in more than two months. Currently, the decline in coal prices has slowed down. The willingness of coking and steel enterprises to replenish inventory at low prices has increased. The transaction volume of some coal mines has improved, and the transaction price of individual coal types has rebounded [1] - Recently, due to safety and other factors, more coal mines have cut or stopped production. This week, the operating rate of 110 coal washing plants in the country decreased by 2.23% to 59.10%. The daily average output was 501,500 tons, a decrease of 84,000 tons from the previous period. Both raw coal and clean coal inventories showed a downward trend, and market sentiment improved. However, against the background of the off - season for finished product consumption, the downstream's procurement of coking coal is generally cautious. The situation of oversupply of coking coal has not been reversed. The high inventory level and the expected decline in finished product demand also suppress the rise of coking coal prices [1] Investment Advice - Iron ore: Pay attention to supply - demand changes and inventory levels, and avoid chasing high prices [1] - Rebar: Investors are advised to take a volatile approach in the short term and pay attention to the spread between hot - rolled coil and rebar [1] - Hot - rolled coil: Investors are advised to take a high - level consolidation approach in the short term and pay attention to supply - demand changes [1] - Coking coal and coke: Pay attention to the volatile market after the decline stabilizes or the strength - weakness relationship between the two [1]