南华铝产业链风险管理报告

Report Overview - The report focuses on the aluminum industry, covering alumina, electrolytic aluminum, and cast aluminum alloy, including price forecasts, risk management strategies, and analysis of core contradictions, influencing factors [1]. Industry Investment Rating - Not provided in the report. Core Viewpoints - Alumina is expected to run at a low level in the short term, with a reference cost line of 2,800 - 2,850 yuan/ton, and can be shorted on rallies in the medium to long term [2]. - Electrolytic aluminum is expected to maintain a high - level shock in the short term and be bearish in the medium to long term [3]. - Cast aluminum alloy may oscillate strongly in the short term, and positive spreads can be considered due to the obvious back structure [3]. Summary by Category Price Forecast - Alumina: The latest price is 2,919 yuan/ton, with a monthly price range forecast of 2,800 - 3,200 yuan/ton, a current volatility of 0.206, and a 3 - year historical percentile of 0.3798 [1]. - Electrolytic aluminum: The latest price is 20,355 yuan/ton, with a monthly price range forecast of 19,000 - 20,300 yuan/ton, a current volatility of 0.0926, and a 3 - year historical percentile of 0.3783 [1]. - Aluminum alloy: The latest price is 19,700 yuan/ton, with a monthly price range forecast of 18,500 - 19,900 yuan/ton [1]. Risk Management Strategies | Product | Situation | Spot Exposure | Strategy | Hedging Tool | Buying/Selling Direction | Hedging Ratio | Suggested Entry Range | | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | | Alumina | High finished - product inventory, worried about price decline | Long | Short the main alumina futures contract | Main alumina futures contract | Sell | 75% | 3,000 | | Alumina | Low raw - material inventory, worried about price increase | Short | Long the main alumina futures contract | Main alumina futures contract | Buy | 75% | 2,700 | | Electrolytic aluminum | High finished - product inventory, worried about price decline | Long | Short the main Shanghai aluminum futures contract | Main Shanghai aluminum futures contract | Sell | 75% | 20,800 | | Electrolytic aluminum | Low raw - material inventory, worried about price increase | Short | Long the main Shanghai aluminum futures contract | Main Shanghai aluminum futures contract | Buy | 75% | 19,900 | | Aluminum alloy | High finished - product inventory, worried about price decline | Long | Short the main aluminum alloy futures contract | Main aluminum alloy futures contract | Sell | 50% | 19,200 | | Aluminum alloy | Low raw - material inventory, worried about price increase | Short | Long the main aluminum alloy futures contract | Main aluminum alloy futures contract | Buy | 50% | 19,600 | [1] Core Contradictions - Alumina: Guinea's Axis mine may remain shut down in the short term, which may lead to monthly supply shortages and push up ore prices. The game between production resumption and maintenance keeps the market oscillating. Overall, alumina is in a state of inventory accumulation, and prices are running at a low level [2]. - Electrolytic aluminum: Supply is close to the industry ceiling with little change. Demand is showing signs of weakening, but the current demand remains firm. The inventory increase may or may not be the inflection point, and the market is in a strong long - short game [3]. - Cast aluminum alloy: The raw material scrap aluminum is in short supply, making the cost support strong. Supply capacity is relatively surplus, and demand may slow down in the second half of the year [3]. Influencing Factors - Alumina - Positive factors: The Guinean government has revoked some mining licenses [2]. - Negative factors: New production capacity is continuously put into operation, and demand is rigid with no increase [2]. - Electrolytic aluminum - Negative factors: Terminal factory orders are in decline, and downstream开工率 has slightly decreased with signs of finished - product inventory accumulation. There is also a risk of profit - driven restarts of shut - down enterprises and a decline in spot prices [3][6]. - Cast aluminum alloy - Positive factors: Scrap aluminum is in short supply, and cost support is strong [3]. - Negative factors: Demand is expected to weaken, and the industry has over - capacity [3]. Market Data - Prices and price differences: The report provides the latest prices, daily changes, and daily change rates of various aluminum - related products, as well as price differences between different contracts [5][9][12]. - Inventory: It shows the latest inventory data of aluminum, alumina, and aluminum alloy, including warehouse receipts and inventory in different regions [27]. - Import and export profits and losses: The report presents the latest import and export profit - loss data of aluminum, alumina, and aluminum alloy [21].