土地市场月度跟踪报告（2025年5月）：核心城市土拍热度延续，1-5月光大核心30城宅地成交均价同比+24%-20250625

Investment Rating - The report maintains an "Overweight" rating for the real estate development industry [6] Core Insights - The land market in core cities continues to show strong activity, with the average transaction price of residential land in 30 core cities increasing by 24% year-on-year from January to May 2025 [1] - The total area of residential land transactions in 100 cities decreased by 3.4% year-on-year, while the average floor price increased by 26.2% during the same period [1] - The top 50 real estate companies saw a 42% year-on-year increase in the value of newly acquired land reserves, despite a slight decrease of 1% in the area of new land reserves [2][4] Summary by Sections 1. Supply and Demand of Land/Residential Land in 100 Cities - In the first five months of 2025, the total area of land transactions in 100 cities decreased by 9% year-on-year, with a total supply of 484 million square meters [11] - The total area of residential land transactions in 100 cities was 69.91 million square meters, down 3.4% year-on-year [21] 2. Transaction Prices of Land/Residential Land in 100 Cities - The average transaction price of residential land in 100 cities increased by 26% year-on-year, reaching 7,466 yuan per square meter [58] - The average transaction price in first-tier cities was 42,605 yuan per square meter, up 50.6% year-on-year [68] 3. Land Acquisition by Top 50 Real Estate Companies - The top 50 real estate companies acquired land worth 4,218 billion yuan from January to May 2025, a 42% increase year-on-year [2][82] - The top three companies in terms of newly acquired land value were Poly Developments (41.3 billion yuan), Greentown China (39.4 billion yuan), and China Jinmao (36 billion yuan) [2][91] 4. Transaction Situation of Residential Land in 30 Core Cities - In May 2025, the total area of residential land transactions in the 30 core cities was 667 million square meters, an increase of 64.3% year-on-year [97] - The overall premium rate for residential land transactions in these cities was 9.2%, up 7.1 percentage points year-on-year [3][97] 5. Investment Recommendations - The report suggests focusing on leading real estate companies with strong comprehensive development capabilities and high product reputation, such as China Overseas Development, China Merchants Shekou, and Poly Developments [109] - It also recommends looking into commercial public REITs and property service companies with strong operational capabilities, such as China Resources Land and Greentown Service [110]