超长信用情绪过热

1. Report Industry Investment Rating No relevant content provided. 2. Core View of the Report The ultra - long credit bond market is experiencing an over - heated sentiment. The ultra - long credit bond market has shown strong performance in both the primary and secondary markets, but there are still vulnerabilities in the market due to the extreme behavior of trading - oriented investors [2][3][4][5]. 3. Summary by Directory 3.1 Ultra - long Credit Sentiment Over - heated 3.1.1 Stock Market Characteristics The ultra - long credit bond market is in an extremely strong situation. The central bank's support for the capital market boosts the bullish sentiment in the bond market. As the yield of coupon assets further declines, the ultra - long credit bonds have strengthened. The number of outstanding ultra - long credit bonds with a yield below 2.2% has increased to 656 compared to last week [2][13]. 3.1.2 Primary Issuance Situation The subscription sentiment for new ultra - long industrial bonds continues to heat up. This week, the issuance scale of new ultra - long credit bonds totaled 31.61 billion, a 153% increase in supply compared to last week. Affected by the re - issued bond "24 Zhonghua 06 (Re - issued)", the average issuance rate of new ultra - long industrial bonds has significantly increased compared to last week. Coupled with the hot market for ultra - long bonds in the cash market, the subscription sentiment for new ultra - long credit bonds continues to rise [3][21]. 3.1.3 Secondary Trading Performance - Index Performance: The ultra - long credit bond index leads the market. In the latest week, the ultra - long credit bond index had a leading increase. The weekly increase of the AA+ credit bond index over 10 years was around 0.9%, while the increase of the same - maturity treasury bond index was 0.77% [4][28]. - Trading Volume: The trading volume of ultra - long industrial bonds has exceeded the previous high. This week, the market's enthusiasm for speculating on ultra - long credit bonds has further increased. The weekly trading volume of industrial bonds with a maturity of 7 - 10 years reached 644, far exceeding the weekly average during the previous round of the market in January this year. The total trading volume of credit bonds over 10 years also reached 167, indicating a hot trading sentiment [4][31]. - Trading Yield: The weekly average trading yield of the most active 7 - 10 - year industrial bonds has dropped to 2.14%, and the spread with 20 - 30 - year treasury bonds has narrowed to 27BP [4]. - Investor Behavior: The intensity of low - valuation bond - grabbing for ultra - long credit bonds has significantly increased, and the trading preference for 10 - 20 - year urban investment bonds has also recovered. The proportion of TKN transactions for credit bonds over 7 years has risen to over 80%, reaching around the 90% historical high since 2024 [4][35]. - Investor Structure: This week, insurance companies and funds remain the main investors in ultra - long credit bonds. Among them, funds have had a net purchase of ultra - long credit bonds exceeding that of insurance companies in the past two weeks. This week, the scale of funds' increase in 5 - 10 - year credit bonds was more than 7 billion, setting a new high since the first half of the year [41].