债市基本面高频数据跟踪：2025 年6月第3周：集运运价指数连续两周急跌

1. Report Industry Investment Rating No relevant content provided. 2. Core Viewpoints of the Report - The economic growth shows that the container shipping freight index has dropped sharply for two consecutive weeks, while most production indicators such as power plant consumption and blast furnace operating rates have rebounded. In terms of demand, the real - estate market sales have improved month - on - month, the auto market retail is stable and strong, but steel prices are weak, and cement prices have returned to pre - increase levels. Regarding inflation, oil prices have tumbled, while CPI shows a mild rebound in pork prices and a slow bottom - touching of the agricultural product price index [1][2][3]. 3. Summary by Relevant Catalogs 3.1 Economic Growth 3.1.1 Production: Most Operating Rates Rebound - Power Plant Consumption: On June 24, the average daily consumption of 6 major power generation groups was 801,000 tons, up 4.3% from June 17. On June 13, the daily consumption of power plants in eight southern provinces was 1.827 million tons, up 6.3% from June 6. High temperatures in East and South China have led to a peak in electricity consumption [5][12]. - Blast Furnace Operating Rate: On June 20, the national blast furnace operating rate was 83.8%, up 0.5 percentage points from June 13, and the capacity utilization rate was 90.8%, up 0.3 percentage points. The operating rate of blast furnaces in Tangshan steel mills remained flat at 94.2% compared to June 13. The fourth round of coke price cuts has improved steel mill profitability and boosted production resumption [18]. - Tire Operating Rate: On June 19, the operating rate of truck all - steel tires was 65.5%, up 4.2 percentage points from June 12, and that of car semi - steel tires was 78.3%, up 0.3 percentage points. The operating rate of looms in the Jiangsu and Zhejiang regions fluctuated within a range [21]. 3.1.2 Demand: Container Shipping Freight Index Drops Sharply for Two Consecutive Weeks - Real - Estate Market: From June 1 - 24, the average daily sales area of commercial housing in 30 large and medium - sized cities was 255,000 square meters, up 7.3% from May, but down 5.8% from June last year, 29.1% from June 2023, and 54.5% from June 2022. Sales in first - tier, second - tier, and third - tier cities decreased year - on - year [25]. - Auto Market: In June, retail sales increased by 24% year - on - year, and wholesale sales increased by 14% year - on - year. The third week of June saw strong retail and wholesale sales, driven by post - college - entrance - exam and summer self - driving car - buying demand [28]. - Steel Prices: On June 24, rebar, wire rod, hot - rolled coil, and cold - rolled prices decreased by 1.3%, 1.0%, remained flat, and decreased by 0.4% respectively compared to June 17. High - temperature and rainy weather has led to weak steel demand [35]. - Cement Prices: On June 24, the national cement price index decreased by 2.0% from June 17. The prices in East China and the Yangtze River region decreased more than the national average. Poor terminal demand and high inventory have led to price cuts [36]. - Glass Prices: On June 24, the active glass futures contract price was 1,014 yuan/ton, up 3.9% from June 17. However, prices have decreased year - on - year [42]. - Container Shipping Freight Index: On June 20, the CCFI index increased by 8.0% from June 13, while the SCFI index decreased by 10.5%. The drop in the Shanghai Export Containerized Freight Index is mainly due to less cargo volume and more overtime ships competing for goods [44]. 3.2 Inflation 3.2.1 CPI: Mild Rebound in Pork Prices - Pork Prices: On June 24, the average wholesale price of pork was 20.3 yuan/kg, up 0.3% from June 17. However, prices have decreased month - on - month and year - on - year. Tight supply due to farmers' price - holding and secondary fattening has supported the price rebound [50]. - Agricultural Product Price Index: On June 24, the agricultural product wholesale price index decreased by 0.1% from June 17. Different agricultural products showed different price trends, with chicken and eggs rising, while vegetables and fruits falling [55]. 3.2.2 PPI: Oil Prices Tumble - Oil Prices: On June 24, Brent and WTI crude oil spot prices were $69.2 and $64.4 per barrel respectively, down 10.9% and 14.0% from June 17. The end of the Israel - Iran conflict has removed the risk premium from oil prices [58]. - Copper and Aluminum Prices: On June 24, LME 3 - month copper and aluminum prices increased by 0.3% and 1.6% respectively compared to June 17 [61]. - Domestic Commodity Index: On June 24, the Nanhua Industrial Products Index decreased by 0.3% from June 17, while the CRB index increased by 0.8% [61]. - Industrial Product Prices: Since June, industrial product prices have generally weakened, with coking coal and coke prices seeing significant declines. Most industrial product prices have widened their year - on - year decline [65].