研究所晨会观点精萃-20250626

Report Industry Investment Rating No relevant content provided. Core View of the Report - Overseas, the US President's announcement of talks with Iran eases risk aversion, and the market expects the Fed to resume its rate - cut cycle, weakening the short - term US dollar index and increasing global risk appetite. Domestically, policies to support consumption and a relaxation of geopolitical tensions in the Middle East boost domestic risk appetite. Different asset classes have different trends: the stock index rebounds in the short - term, treasury bonds are volatile at a high level, and different commodity sectors show different short - term trends [3]. Summary by Related Catalogs Macro - finance - Stock Index: Driven by sectors such as finance, military, and artificial intelligence, the domestic stock market rises. With policy stimulus and a reduction in geopolitical risks, the short - term trading strategy is to cautiously go long [3][4]. - Treasury Bonds: They are volatile at a high level in the short - term, and the recommended strategy is to cautiously wait and see [3]. Precious Metals - After Iran and Israel declared a cease - fire, the safe - haven demand for precious metals weakened. Hawkish remarks from Powell and the Fed's decision to maintain interest rates, along with a deterioration in US consumer confidence, have put short - term pressure on precious metals [5]. Black Metals - Steel: The spot and futures prices of steel decline slightly. Demand continues to weaken, but supply is unlikely to decrease significantly due to expanding profits. The market is expected to oscillate at the bottom in the short - term [6][7]. - Iron Ore: The spot and futures prices of iron ore decline slightly. With rising iron - water production and inventory replenishment by steel mills, and high supply expectations, the price is expected to oscillate in the short - term and may decline in the medium - term [7]. - Silicon Manganese/Silicon Iron: The spot prices are flat. Demand is okay in the short - term, but supply may increase. With potential supply disruptions in manganese mines, the market is expected to oscillate in the short - term, and prices may decline if oil prices fall [8]. Chemicals - Soda Ash: It oscillates strongly. Supply is abundant, demand is weak, and inventory is increasing. The price is expected to be under pressure and oscillate in the short - term [9]. - Glass: It also oscillates strongly. Supply is for just - in - time production, demand is weak, and profits are low. The price is expected to oscillate in the short - term [9]. Non - ferrous Metals and New Energy - Copper: Due to difficulties in US - EU trade negotiations and potential tariffs, along with high production and potential demand weakening, the short - term trend is uncertain, and future negotiations and tariff policies need to be monitored [10]. - Aluminum: With eased geopolitical tensions, the price rises. However, inventory accumulation may signal a turning point, and demand may weaken in the future [10]. - Aluminum Alloy: In the off - season, weak demand is offset by tight scrap aluminum supply, so the price is expected to oscillate strongly in the short - term with limited upside [11]. - Tin: The price rises due to slow mine复产 in Myanmar and tight domestic supply. Despite being in the off - season with weak demand, the price is expected to oscillate strongly in the short - term but with limited upside [11]. - Lithium Carbonate: The price rebounds and oscillates. Supply increases while demand weakens, and the recommended strategy is to wait and see in the short - term and go short in the medium - term [12]. - Industrial Silicon: It moves sideways. With weak supply and demand and a rebound in coal prices, the recommended strategy is to wait and see in the short - term and go short in the medium - term [12]. - Polysilicon: It remains weak. With limited room for a decline in supply and downward pressure on demand, the supply - demand contradiction may intensify if the photovoltaic industry cuts production [13][14]. Energy and Chemicals - Crude Oil: Trump's pressure on Iran and a decline in EIA inventory keep the oil price oscillating in the short - term [15]. - Asphalt: It follows the oil price and oscillates. With improved shipping but increasing inventory, it will continue to fluctuate at a high level in the short - term [15]. - PX: It has strong cost support but faces a risk of decline. It will follow the oil price and oscillate weakly in the short - term [15]. - PTA: The basis remains strong, demand is weakening, and there is downward pressure in the short - term [16]. - Ethylene Glycol: With stable overseas production and low basis, the short - term de - stocking drive is low, and it will run weakly and stably [16]. - Short - fiber: It will follow the decline in the oil price and oscillate weakly in the medium - term, with high inventory and weak demand [16]. - Methanol: The price may decline in the short - term but is expected to oscillate strongly due to potential supply shortages [16]. - PP: With increasing production and weakening downstream demand, the price is expected to decline [17]. - LLDPE: With stable production and demand and falling oil prices, the price is expected to weaken and fluctuate strongly in the short - term [17]. Agricultural Products - US Soybeans: The price falls due to the impact of soybean oil and crude oil, and favorable weather in the US Midwest may further pressure the price [18]. - Soybean and Rapeseed Meal: The supply - demand situation is gradually easing, and the price may decline in the short - term. Attention should be paid to weather, policies, and import supply [18]. - Oils and Fats: The previous rally may reverse due to falling crude oil prices and changes in palm oil supply and demand [18]. - Corn: With changes in inventory and market supply, the price may consolidate at a high level in the short - term [18]. - Hogs: The market has a low expectation for price increases in July, and the price may decline in the short - term, with continued selling pressure on the LH09 contract [18].