宏源期货品种策略日报：油脂油料-20250626

1. Report Industry Investment Rating - No relevant information provided 2. Core View of the Report - The geopolitical risk in the international crude oil market is basically eliminated, and the oil price has given back all the geopolitical premium. The PX price has returned to near the pre - rally level. PX has a tight - balance expectation due to some upcoming device maintenance, and its bottom support is relatively stable. PTA is facing new device commissioning in the third quarter, resulting in a mismatch with PX. PTA inventory's absolute value is decreasing, but the relative value is at a five - year high, and the situation of strong near - term and weak far - term is hard to change. The polyester industry chain follows cost fluctuations, and it is expected that PX, PTA, and PR will all operate in a volatile manner [2] 3. Summary According to Relevant Catalogs 3.1 Price Information - Upstream: On June 25, 2025, the futures settlement price of WTI crude oil was $64.92 per barrel, up 0.85%; Brent crude oil was $67.68 per barrel, up 0.80%. The spot price of naphtha (CFR Japan) was $579.25 per ton, down 1.19%. The spot price of xylene (isomeric grade, FOB South Korea) was $726 per ton, down 0.34% [1] - PTA Futures and Spot: The closing price of CZCE TA's main contract was 4,790 yuan per ton, up 0.29%; the settlement price was 4,780 yuan per ton, down 1.12%. The spot price of PTA in the domestic market was 5,050 yuan per ton, down 0.94% [1] - PX Futures and Spot: The closing price of CZCE PX's main contract was 6,758 yuan per ton, down 0.03%; the settlement price was 6,752 yuan per ton, down 1.69%. The domestic spot price of p - xylene was 7,218 yuan per ton, unchanged [1] - PR Futures and Spot: The closing price of CZCE PR's main contract was 5,960 yuan per ton, up 0.03%; the settlement price was 5,954 yuan per ton, down 1.39%. The market price of polyester bottle chips in the East China market was 6,060 yuan per ton, unchanged [1] - Downstream Products: The CCFEI price index of polyester staple fiber was 6,785 yuan per ton, down 0.51%; the CCFEI price index of polyester chips was 5,935 yuan per ton, down 0.25% [2] 3.2 Spread Information - The near - far month spread of PTA was 234 yuan per ton, an increase of 8 yuan; the basis was 258 yuan per ton, a decrease of 61 yuan. The PXN spread was $269.75 per ton, down 0.98%; the PX - MX spread was $123 per ton, down 5.51% [1] 3.3 Operating Rate Information - On June 25, 2025, the operating rate of the PX in the polyester industry chain was 82.7%, unchanged; the PTA industry chain load rate of PTA factories was 78.56%, unchanged; the load rate of polyester factories was 90.01%, unchanged [1] 3.4 Production and Sales Information - The sales rate of polyester filament was 22%, down 4 percentage points; the sales rate of polyester staple fiber was 55%, up 10 percentage points; the sales rate of polyester chips was 46%, up 11 percentage points [1] 3.5 Device Information - A 1.2 - million - ton PTA device in the northwest is planned to restart between May 15 and 20 [2] 3.6 Trading Strategy - PTA started to correct, with the TA2509 contract closing at 4,790 yuan per ton (- 0.91%), and the intraday trading volume was 902,000 lots. PX was greatly affected by crude oil and followed the decline, with the PX2509 contract closing at 6,736 yuan per ton (- 0.24%), and the intraday trading volume was 225,200 lots. PR followed the cost operation, with the 2509 contract closing at 5,960 yuan per ton (- 1.29%), and the intraday trading volume was 46,000 lots. It is expected that PX, PTA, and PR will all operate in a volatile manner [2]