工业硅、多晶硅日评：低位整理-20250626

Report Industry Investment Rating - No relevant information provided Core Viewpoints - The silicon market is experiencing weak supply and demand, with high inventory pressure in the industry. Silicon prices are expected to remain under pressure in the short term, but the downward space may be limited [1]. - The fundamentals of polysilicon are weak, with lower transaction prices. Considering the high uncertainty of terminal installations and the short - term difficulty in resolving over - capacity issues, polysilicon prices are unlikely to have an upward trend in the short term, and the strategy is mainly to short on rebounds [1]. Summary by Related Catalogs Industrial Silicon - Price Information: On June 26, 2025, the average price of non - oxygenated 553 (East China) was 8,100 yuan/ton with 0.00% change; the futures main contract closing price was 7,555 yuan/ton, up 0.94%; the basis (East China 553 - futures main) was 545 yuan/ton, down 70 yuan [1]. - Supply and Demand: In the north, silicon enterprise operations changed little. In the southwest, as the wet season approaches, power costs are decreasing, and enterprise operations are steadily increasing. On the demand side, polysilicon enterprises continue to cut production, and the resumption of production may be postponed. Organic silicon enterprises have a strong willingness to cut production to support prices, but demand is weak. Domestic monomer enterprises' operations are mixed, and the overall operation has declined, further weakening the demand for industrial silicon. Silicon - aluminum alloy enterprises purchase as needed, and downstream inventory - building willingness is low [1]. - Investment Strategy: The silicon market has weak supply and demand, high inventory pressure, and no expected reversal of silicon prices. It is expected to operate under pressure in the short term. Given the current low silicon prices, the subsequent downward space may be limited. Continuously monitor the production dynamics of silicon enterprises [1]. Polysilicon - Price Information: On June 26, 2025, the price of N - type dense material remained unchanged at 33.5 yuan/kg; the futures main contract closing price was 30,625 yuan/ton, down 1.48% [1]. - Supply and Demand: Silicon material enterprises continue to cut production, and some may have new capacity put into operation. After offsetting increases and decreases, production is expected to increase slightly, with the overall output remaining within 100,000 tons. On the demand side, the photovoltaic market is weak, with rising inventories of silicon wafers and silicon materials, and continuous price drops of silicon wafers, cells, and components. Market demand has slowed down, and transactions are weak [1]. - Investment Strategy: The fundamentals are weak, and the transaction price of silicon materials has decreased. Considering the high uncertainty of terminal installations and the short - term difficulty in resolving over - capacity issues, polysilicon prices are unlikely to have an upward trend in the short term. The strategy is mainly to short on rebounds. Continuously monitor the actual operation of the supply side [1]. Other Related Products - Silicon Wafer Prices: N - type 210R was 1.03 yuan/piece, down 1.90%; N - type 183mm was 0.89 yuan/piece, down 1.11% [1]. - Cell Prices: Single - crystal PERC cell M10 - 182mm was 0.27 yuan/watt, unchanged [1]. - Component Prices: Single - crystal PERC component double - sided - 182mm was 0.73 yuan/watt, unchanged; single - crystal PERC component single - sided - 182mm was 0.70 yuan/watt, unchanged [1]. - Organic Silicon Prices: DMC was 10,450 yuan/ton, up 0.48%; 107 glue was 11,650 yuan/ton, down 0.43%; silicone oil was 13,400 yuan/ton, unchanged [1]. Industry News - On the evening of June 24, 2025, Jingshan Light Machinery announced that its wholly - owned subsidiary, Suzhou Shengcheng Photovoltaic Equipment Co., Ltd., would invest 150 million yuan in cash to increase the capital of Jiangsu Runyang New Energy Technology Co., Ltd [1]. - Indian solar manufacturer Waaree Energies has obtained board approval to change the location of its planned 6GW vertically integrated manufacturing plant in India due to project implementation delays in Odisha. The project will now be spread across multiple locations in Gujarat, Maharashtra, and possibly other Indian states [1].