平安证券晨会纪要-20250626

Core Viewpoints - The market environment is comparable to the second half of 2019, characterized by external uncertainties (tariffs, technology restrictions) and a recovery in domestic profitability, with emerging industries experiencing accelerated growth [3][6][8] - The report identifies four main lines for structural investment in new growth: technological innovation (domestic AI, semiconductors, innovative drugs), new consumption (beauty care, leisure food, outdoor sports), advanced manufacturing (automobiles, intelligent driving, military industry, machinery), and non-ferrous metals (gold, copper, rare earths) [3][8] Market Review - The new narrative logic of the Chinese market is becoming clearer, with significant volatility in global assets due to external factors, while Chinese assets benefit from technological innovation and fundamental certainty [6][8] - Small-cap stocks have significantly outperformed, with the CSI 1000 index rising over 10%, while new industry tracks have shown heightened activity, with certain sectors like stablecoins and innovative drugs seeing gains over 20% [6][8] Market Environment - External uncertainties continue to affect the market, but domestic fundamentals remain resilient, with corporate profitability showing signs of recovery [6][8] - The first quarter of 2025 saw a positive turnaround in entity profitability, particularly in the TMT sector, indicating a favorable outlook for the domestic economy [6][8] Structural Variables - Emerging industries are poised for a new breakthrough, with improvements in AI technology, equipment manufacturing, and new consumption trends [7][8] - Market financing resources are increasingly directed towards new productive forces, with significant growth in IPOs and mergers and acquisitions, particularly in sectors like electric equipment and biomedicine [7][8] Investment Outlook - The report suggests a focus on new growth opportunities, with a structural shift towards emerging industries expected to lead the market [3][8] - The report emphasizes the importance of strategic positioning in sectors such as technology innovation, new consumption, advanced manufacturing, and non-ferrous metals for future investment [3][8]