国泰君安期货所长早读-20250626

1. Report Sector Investment Ratings - Not provided in the content 2. Core Views of the Report - Trump mentioned that the conflict between Israel and Iran might break out again soon, and the US would talk with Iran next week. The cease - fire between Israel and Iran was progressing "very smoothly", but the US would not tolerate Iran's continued nuclear activities [8][17][27][28][30][34]. - The Fed's Powell mentioned on the first day of the congressional hearing that he did not rule out the possibility of an early interest - rate cut, which might lead to an earlier expectation of a domestic interest - rate cut [9]. - For the stock index futures, the bullish pattern continues. In the short - term, it is expected to remain strong to support the index, and then may rise and fall after full fermentation. In the trend, a bullish view is maintained, and the more certain way for long - position investors is to reverse and advance layout when there are disturbances such as geopolitical factors [9][10]. - The over - capacity of offset printing paper is intensifying, and it will be in a weak and volatile state in the second half of the year. The price of double - offset paper is still bottom - seeking, and if Chenming restarts production, the paper price pressure may increase. There may be seasonal restocking and consumption improvement from September to November. Overseas pulp mills have stronger bargaining power in the industrial chain. The strategy is to short the processing profit after the futures are listed (long pulp, short double - offset paper) [11]. 3. Summary by Relevant Catalogs 3.1 Futures Market Outlook - Precious Metals: Gold is affected by the cease - fire of geopolitical conflicts, and silver continues to rush higher. The trend intensities of both are - 1 [13][16][20]. - Base Metals: - Copper: The inventory continues to decline, supporting the price. The trend intensity is 1 [13][22][24]. - Aluminum: It is in a high - level shock. Alumina rebounds slightly, and aluminum alloy follows electrolytic aluminum. The trend intensities of aluminum, alumina, and aluminum alloy are all 0 [13][25][27]. - Zinc: It is in range adjustment, with a trend intensity of 0 [13][28]. - Lead: It runs strongly, with a trend intensity of 1 [13][30]. - Tin: It has a tight - reality and weak - expectation situation, with a trend intensity of 0 [13][32][35]. - Nickel: The expectation of the distal nickel - ore end is loose, and the smelting end restricts the upward elasticity. Stainless steel has a marginal weakening in supply and demand, and the steel price oscillates at a low level. The trend intensities of nickel and stainless steel are both 0 [13][37][40]. - Energy and Chemicals: - Carbonate Lithium: The contradiction of warehouse receipts still exists, and the oscillating trend continues, with a trend intensity of 0 [13][41][43]. - Industrial Silicon: The warehouse receipts are continuously decreasing, and it is in a short - term shock. Polysilicon continues with the idea of short - allocation on rallies. The trend intensity of industrial silicon is 0, and that of polysilicon is - 1 [13][44][46]. - Iron Ore: The expectation fluctuates, and it oscillates in a range, with a trend intensity of 0 [13][47]. - Rebar and Hot - Rolled Coil: Affected by macro - sentiment, they oscillate in a wide range. The trend intensities of rebar and hot - rolled coil are both 0 [13][49][51]. - Ferrosilicon and Silicomanganese: Affected by macro - sentiment, they oscillate in a wide range. The trend intensities of ferrosilicon and silicomanganese are both 1 [13][52][54]. - Coke and Coking Coal: The sentiment is released, and they oscillate strongly. The trend intensities of coke and coking coal are both 0 [13][55][57]. - Steam Coal: The demand still needs to be released, and it oscillates in a wide range, with a trend intensity of 0 [13][59][62]. - Others: Various products such as rubber, asphalt, and plastics have different trends such as oscillating strongly, weakly oscillating, and short - term oscillating [13]. 3.2 Market News and Data - Precious Metals: The prices, trading volumes, open interests, inventories, and price differences of gold and silver futures and spot markets are provided, along with relevant macro and industry news [17]. - Base Metals: - Copper: The prices, trading volumes, open interests, inventories, and price differences of copper futures and spot markets are provided, along with macro and industry news such as the start of a new copper smelter and production cuts by a Japanese company [22]. - Aluminum, Alumina, and Aluminum Alloy: A large amount of data on prices, trading volumes, open interests, inventories, and price differences are provided, along with comprehensive news [25]. - Zinc: The prices, trading volumes, open interests, inventories, and price differences of zinc futures and spot markets are provided, along with news [28]. - Lead: The prices, trading volumes, open interests, inventories, and price differences of lead futures and spot markets are provided, along with news [30]. - Tin: The prices, trading volumes, open interests, inventories, and price differences of tin futures and spot markets are provided, along with macro and industry news [33]. - Nickel and Stainless Steel: The prices, trading volumes, open interests, and relevant industrial chain data of nickel and stainless steel are provided, along with macro and industry news such as production resumptions and suspensions in the nickel industry [37]. - Energy and Chemicals: - Carbonate Lithium: The prices, trading volumes, open interests, warehouse receipts, and relevant industrial chain data of carbonate lithium are provided, along with macro and industry news [41]. - Industrial Silicon and Polysilicon: The prices, trading volumes, open interests, and relevant data of industrial silicon and polysilicon are provided, along with macro and industry news [44]. - Iron Ore: The prices, trading volumes, open interests, and price differences of iron ore futures and spot markets are provided, along with macro and industry news [47]. - Rebar and Hot - Rolled Coil: The prices, trading volumes, open interests, and price differences of rebar and hot - rolled coil futures and spot markets are provided, along with macro and industry news such as steel inventory changes and production data [49]. - Ferrosilicon and Silicomanganese: The prices, trading volumes, open interests, and price differences of ferrosilicon and silicomanganese futures and spot markets are provided, along with macro and industry news [52]. - Coke and Coking Coal: The prices, trading volumes, open interests, and price differences of coke and coking coal futures and spot markets are provided, along with price and position - holding information [55]. - Steam Coal: The trading situation, prices, and position - holding information of steam coal are provided, along with domestic and foreign price quotes [60].